FNUS75 KBOU 031153 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 530 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE WIND AND INSTABILITY OFF THE GROUND TODAY CREATING BETTER SMOKE DISPERSAL ONCE THE SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WEAK SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER SO SMOKE DISPERSION WILL NOT BE AS GOOD. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80. MIN HUMIDITY........15-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...BECOMING EAST 4-10 MPH BY 1300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTH 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 12000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 8-14 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN DOWNSLOPE/ DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 2100 AND 500 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78. MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN EAST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1100 AND 12000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH. .LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/03-04 18 0 49 50 SW 3 1 156 W 5 595 P 09/03-05 18 0 50 48 W 3 1 162 W 6 741 P 09/03-06 11 0 50 45 W 5 5 2 1 NW32 167 W 6 886 P 09/03-07 19 0 52 45 W 5 1 1701 W 9 21422 P 09/03-08 19 0 57 41 NW 5 1 3235 NW 13 41958 F 09/03-09 19 0 62 35 N 5 5 2 1 NW26 4770 NW 15 62494 G 09/03-10 19 0 67 28 N 5 1 6988 NW 16 101440 V 09/03-11 19 0 70 23 N 6 1 9206 NW 17 140387 V 09/03-12 41 10 73 20 N 6 6 2 2 NW26 11425 NW 18 179333 E 09/03-13 41 10 75 18 N 6 2 12085 NW 16 170442 E 09/03-14 41 10 76 17 N 6 2 12746 NW 15 161550 E 09/03-15 47 15 77 16 N 6 6 3 3 NW22 13406 NW 13 152658 E 09/03-16 47 15 77 16 NE 7 3 13134 NW 13 139327 V 09/03-17 47 15 75 17 NE 7 3 12862 NW 12 125995 V 09/03-18 50 10 74 19 E 14 22 3 2 NW16 12590 NW 10 112664 V 09/03-19 50 10 70 24 E 12 2 9061 N 10 81299 G 09/03-20 50 10 65 32 SE 9 2 5533 E 10 49934 F 09/03-21 50 10 62 38 S 8 8 3 2 NW20 2004 SE 10 18569 P 09/03-22 43 0 60 43 S 7 1 1428 SE 10 13176 P 09/03-23 43 0 57 46 S 7 1 852 SE 10 7783 P 09/04-00 43 0 54 50 S 7 7 3 1 NW24 276 S 10 2391 P 09/04-01 43 0 51 55 S 7 1 232 S 9 1875 P 09/04-02 32 0 49 58 S 6 1 188 S 8 1360 P 09/04-03 32 0 47 60 SW 6 6 3 1 N20 145 SW 7 845 P 09/04-04 32 0 46 60 SW 6 1 132 SW 7 759 P 09/04-05 32 0 46 60 SW 6 1 119 W 7 673 P 09/04-06 35 0 46 60 W 6 6 3 1 N20 106 W 7 587 P 09/04-07 35 0 48 55 W 6 1 232 W 6 1100 P 09/04-08 35 0 53 50 W 5 1 340 NW 6 1514 P 09/04-09 35 0 59 43 NW 5 5 2 1 NW14 449 NW 5 1928 P 09/04-10 35 0 65 35 NW 5 1 3799 NW 7 32768 P 09/04-11 35 0 68 30 N 6 1 7148 N 8 63607 G 09/04-12 58 0 71 26 N 6 6 3 1 N14 10497 N 10 94446 G 09/04-13 58 20 73 24 NE 6 3 11439 N 9 86282 G 09/04-14 58 20 74 23 NE 7 3 12381 N 7 78118 G 09/04-15 58 20 75 22 NE 7 7 3 3 N 9 13324 N 6 69954 G 09/04-16 58 20 75 24 E 8 3 12926 N 5 56992 F 09/04-17 58 20 73 26 E 9 3 12528 N 3 44029 F 09/04-18 58 20 73 28 SE 10 10 3 3 NW12 12131 N 3 31067 P 09/04-19 58 20 68 32 SE 10 3 8663 NE 8 29730 P 09/04-20 58 20 64 37 SE 12 3 5195 SE 13 28392 P 09/04-21 58 20 61 40 SE 12 12 3 3 N13 1727 SE 18 27055 P 09/04-22 58 20 59 44 S 12 3 1259 S 16 19187 P 09/04-23 58 20 57 48 S 10 3 791 S 14 11320 P 09/05-00 43 5 53 54 S 9 9 3 1 N 9 323 S 13 3452 P 09/05-01 43 5 51 59 S 8 1 258 S 10 2497 P 09/05-02 43 5 49 62 S 7 1 194 S 8 1541 P 09/05-03 43 5 47 63 SW 5 5 3 1 NE 7 130 S 6 585 P 09/05-04 43 5 47 63 SW 5 1 121 SW 5 525 P 09/05-05 43 5 46 62 SW 5 1 113 SW 5 465 P 09/05-06 43 5 46 62 SW 5 5 3 1 N 7 104 SW 5 405 P 09/05-07 43 5 48 62 SW 3 1 181 SW 3 456 P 09/05-08 43 5 53 55 S 2 1 257 S 2 507 P 09/05-09 43 5 59 47 SE 2 2 3 1 N 6 334 SE 2 557 P 09/05-10 43 5 64 38 SE 5 1 3641 SE 2 10408 P 09/05-11 43 5 67 33 SE 7 1 6948 E 3 20260 P 09/05-12 58 30 70 29 SE 10 10 3 4 N 2 10254 E 3 30111 P 09/05-13 58 30 72 26 SE 12 4 11071 E 3 38887 P 09/05-14 58 30 73 25 SE 13 4 11889 SE 5 47663 F 09/05-15 58 30 74 25 SE 14 14 3 4 NW 3 12706 SE 5 56439 F 09/05-16 58 30 74 26 SE 14 4 11966 SE 6 59178 F 09/05-17 58 30 72 29 SE 14 4 11227 SE 7 61917 G 09/05-18 58 30 72 31 SE 14 14 3 4 N 5 10487 SE 7 64656 G 09/05-19 58 30 68 36 SE 13 4 7633 SE 12 53718 F 09/05-20 58 30 63 42 SE 13 4 4778 SE 15 42779 F 09/05-21 58 30 61 46 SE 12 12 3 4 N 5 1924 SE 20 31841 P 09/05-22 58 30 58 51 S 10 4 1396 S 16 22309 P 09/05-23 58 30 56 55 S 9 4 867 S 14 12777 P 09/06-00 43 0 53 63 S 8 8 3 1 E 2 339 S 12 3245 P 09/06-01 43 0 50 67 S 8 1 264 S 9 2395 P 09/06-02 43 0 48 69 SW 7 1 190 SW 8 1546 P 09/06-03 43 0 47 69 SW 7 7 3 1 S 2 116 SW 7 696 P 09/06-04 43 0 46 69 SW 7 1 113 SW 7 709 P 09/06-05 43 0 46 69 SW 7 1 110 SW 8 722 P 09/06-06 43 0 46 69 SW 7 7 3 1 W 3 107 SW 8 735 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...JAMES WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090903.SHEEP.01/BOU