FNUS75 KBOU 041559 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CEDAR LAKE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 950 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE QUICKLY WARMED TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF THE FIRE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE THE LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE NOW BEGUN TO REVERSE TO A LIGHT EASTERLY/UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZE. THIS EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 1400...COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FIRE. SHOWERS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER 1500. AS THESE SHOWERS TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. (NOTE THE TABULAR DATA AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS SPOT WAS GENERATED FOR A LAT/LON APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES EAST OF THE ACTUAL FIRE LOCATION.) ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83. MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH PASSING SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8-14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...RISING TO 11200-12200 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1030...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2030. MIN TEMPERATURE.....57. MAX HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83. MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11600-12600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CEDAR LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/04-09 18 0 68 46 NE 2 2 3 1 N21 2346 CALM 2717 P 09/04-10 14 0 73 39 NE 3 1 4243 N 3 18904 P 09/04-11 14 0 75 36 E 5 1 6141 N 6 35090 P 09/04-12 39 0 78 33 E 6 6 4 1 N15 8038 N 7 51277 F 09/04-13 39 0 79 30 E 6 1 9462 N 7 53554 F 09/04-14 39 0 80 29 E 5 1 10887 N 6 55832 F 09/04-15 56 2 81 27 E 5 5 4 1 NW10 12312 N 6 58110 F 09/04-16 56 2 81 27 E 5 1 11645 N 5 48992 F 09/04-17 56 2 80 29 E 5 1 10978 N 5 39874 P 09/04-18 70 10 80 30 NE 5 5 3 2 NW 8 10311 N 3 30756 P 09/04-19 70 10 76 34 E 5 2 7056 NE 5 21718 P 09/04-20 70 10 73 39 SE 5 2 3800 SE 6 12681 P 09/04-21 66 2 70 42 S 5 5 3 1 NW 8 545 S 8 3643 P 09/04-22 66 2 68 44 S 6 1 441 S 8 2999 P 09/04-23 66 1 67 46 SW 8 1 336 SW 8 2354 P 09/05-00 51 1 64 49 SW 9 9 3 1 N 8 232 SW 8 1710 P 09/05-01 51 1 62 51 W 9 1 219 W 8 1497 P 09/05-02 51 1 60 51 W 8 1 205 W 7 1283 P 09/05-03 50 1 59 51 W 8 8 3 1 NE 9 192 W 7 1070 P 09/05-04 50 1 59 51 W 8 1 201 W 7 1111 P 09/05-05 50 1 58 51 W 8 1 210 W 6 1153 P 09/05-06 34 5 58 51 W 8 8 3 1 N10 219 W 6 1194 P 09/05-07 34 5 60 50 SW 6 1 754 SW 5 2349 P 09/05-08 34 5 64 44 S 3 1 1295 S 5 3576 P 09/05-09 34 5 69 38 CALM 1 3 1 N 8 1837 S 3 4802 P 09/05-10 34 5 74 34 SE 3 1 4785 SE 2 5485 P 09/05-11 34 5 77 32 SE 6 1 7734 CALM 6168 P 09/05-12 34 5 80 31 E 8 8 3 1 N 7 10682 CALM 6851 P 09/05-13 53 20 81 28 E 8 3 11486 CALM 17433 P 09/05-14 53 20 82 26 E 8 3 12290 E 2 28015 P 09/05-15 53 20 83 24 E 8 8 3 3 NW 6 13093 E 3 38596 P 09/05-16 53 20 83 24 E 8 3 12521 E 5 44452 F 09/05-17 53 20 82 25 E 8 3 11948 E 5 50308 F 09/05-18 53 20 81 26 E 8 8 3 3 S 2 11376 SE 6 56164 F 09/05-19 53 20 78 31 SE 7 3 8149 SE 8 43183 F 09/05-20 53 20 74 35 SE 7 3 4922 SE 9 30203 P 09/05-21 53 20 71 39 S 6 6 3 3 NW 5 1695 S 12 17223 P 09/05-22 53 20 70 42 S 7 3 1234 S 10 12244 P 09/05-23 53 20 68 44 SW 7 3 772 SW 9 7264 P 09/06-00 45 0 65 48 SW 8 8 3 1 NW 2 311 SW 8 2285 P 09/06-01 45 0 63 50 SW 8 1 267 SW 8 1986 P 09/06-02 45 0 61 51 W 9 1 223 SW 9 1687 P 09/06-03 45 0 60 51 W 9 9 3 1 W 5 179 W 9 1388 P 09/06-04 45 0 59 52 W 9 1 185 W 8 1353 P 09/06-05 45 0 59 52 W 9 1 190 W 8 1318 P 09/06-06 45 0 59 52 W 9 9 3 1 NW 6 196 W 8 1283 P 09/06-07 45 0 61 50 W 7 1 448 W 7 2148 P 09/06-08 45 0 64 46 W 5 1 701 NW 6 3013 P 09/06-09 45 0 68 41 W 2 2 3 1 NW 8 954 NW 5 3878 P 09/06-10 45 0 72 36 NW 5 1 2643 NW 5 8618 P 09/06-11 45 0 74 36 N 6 1 4331 N 3 13359 P 09/06-12 69 20 77 35 E 7 7 3 3 N 7 6020 N 3 18100 P 09/06-13 69 20 78 32 E 6 3 7255 NE 3 17968 P 09/06-14 69 20 79 31 E 5 3 8489 NE 2 17836 P 09/06-15 69 20 80 29 E 3 3 3 3 N 3 9724 E 2 17704 P 09/06-16 69 20 79 30 E 3 3 8480 CALM 13100 P 09/06-17 69 20 78 32 W 3 3 7237 CALM 8497 P 09/06-18 69 20 78 32 W 2 2 3 3 E 5 5993 CALM 3893 P 09/06-19 69 20 74 37 W 5 3 4114 NW 2 3311 P 09/06-20 69 20 71 40 W 6 3 2236 W 5 2728 P 09/06-21 69 20 69 43 SW 8 8 3 3 E 3 357 W 7 2145 P 09/06-22 69 20 67 45 W 8 3 329 W 7 1883 P 09/06-23 69 20 66 47 W 7 3 301 W 6 1620 P 09/07-00 54 0 63 51 W 7 7 3 1 SW 8 272 W 6 1357 P 09/07-01 54 0 61 54 W 8 1 234 W 6 1233 P 09/07-02 54 0 59 56 W 8 1 196 W 7 1108 P 09/07-03 54 0 58 59 W 8 8 3 1 W 6 158 W 7 984 P 09/07-04 54 0 58 60 W 8 1 157 W 7 955 P 09/07-05 54 0 58 61 W 8 1 157 W 7 927 P 09/07-06 54 0 58 61 W 7 7 3 1 W 3 156 W 7 898 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ROCCO SNART REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090904.CEDAR.01/BOU