FNUS75 KBOU 060317 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUMM TRAIL FIRE...BOULDER SHERIFF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 916 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...EXPECT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING. MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 50-60% WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTER 1500 WITH SOME WETTING RAINS AS THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....53. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 8-10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 8-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70. MIN HUMIDITY........35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-14 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8400-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....54. MAX HUMIDITY........47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .LABOR DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BRUMM TRAIL FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/05-21 49 4 65 40 S 10 10 3 2 NW 9 480 S 9 3903 P 09/05-22 49 4 64 43 S 8 2 385 S 8 2944 P 09/05-23 49 4 62 46 S 6 2 290 SW 7 1985 P 09/06-00 22 4 60 50 SW 5 5 3 1 N 6 195 SW 6 1025 P 09/06-01 22 4 58 52 SW 5 1 176 SW 7 1008 P 09/06-02 22 4 56 53 W 6 1 157 W 7 991 P 09/06-03 16 2 55 53 W 6 6 3 1 NE 5 138 W 8 974 P 09/06-04 16 2 55 53 W 9 1 142 W 9 1176 P 09/06-05 16 2 55 53 W 10 1 147 W 10 1377 P 09/06-06 16 0 55 53 W 13 13 3 1 E 6 152 W 12 1578 P 09/06-07 16 0 56 50 W 12 1 395 W 12 3485 P 09/06-08 16 0 58 46 W 10 1 639 W 10 5392 P 09/06-09 54 3 61 41 W 10 10 3 1 S 7 882 NW 9 7299 P 09/06-10 54 3 64 40 NW 10 1 3380 W 7 11256 P 09/06-11 54 3 66 41 NW 8 1 5878 W 5 15212 P 09/06-12 69 23 67 41 NW 5 5 3 3 S10 8377 W 2 19169 P 09/06-13 69 23 68 40 NW 5 3 8588 W 3 22475 P 09/06-14 69 23 69 37 W 3 3 8800 SW 3 25782 P 09/06-15 72 35 69 35 W 3 3 3 4 S13 9011 SW 3 29089 P 09/06-16 72 35 69 36 W 3 4 8747 SW 5 31525 P 09/06-17 72 35 68 37 S 5 4 8482 SW 5 33960 P 09/06-18 74 30 68 39 SE 3 3 3 4 SW13 8218 S 5 36396 P 09/06-19 74 30 66 38 S 3 4 5846 SW 5 27250 P 09/06-20 74 30 64 41 SW 3 4 3095 SW 5 14235 P 09/06-21 74 30 62 40 SW 3 3 3 4 W10 345 SW 5 1219 P 09/06-22 74 30 63 41 SW 3 4 299 W 5 1230 P 09/06-23 74 30 61 41 W 3 4 253 W 6 1241 P 09/07-00 74 30 59 43 W 5 5 3 4 W 9 207 W 7 1253 P 09/07-01 49 0 58 44 W 6 1 194 W 8 1342 P 09/07-02 49 0 57 44 W 7 1 181 W 9 1431 P 09/07-03 49 0 56 45 W 8 8 3 1 W10 168 W 10 1520 P 09/07-04 49 0 56 46 W 10 1 170 W 12 1692 P 09/07-05 49 0 55 46 W 13 1 172 W 13 1865 P 09/07-06 49 0 55 47 W 14 22 3 1 NW13 174 W 14 2037 P 09/07-07 53 0 56 47 W 14 1 473 W 14 5391 P 09/07-08 53 0 60 42 W 13 1 772 W 13 8744 P 09/07-09 53 0 64 39 NW 12 12 3 1 NW10 1072 NW 13 12098 P 09/07-10 53 0 68 36 NW 9 1 3870 NW 10 26134 P 09/07-11 53 0 70 34 NW 7 1 6669 NW 9 40171 F 09/07-12 61 30 72 31 NW 5 5 3 4 W10 9468 NW 7 54207 F 09/07-13 61 30 74 30 N 3 4 10021 W 6 47507 F 09/07-14 61 30 75 28 NE 3 4 10575 W 5 40808 F 09/07-15 61 30 75 26 E 3 3 4 4 W13 11129 W 3 34108 P 09/07-16 61 30 75 26 E 5 4 10124 SW 3 27294 P 09/07-17 61 30 74 27 E 6 4 9119 SE 2 20480 P 09/07-18 61 30 74 28 E 7 7 3 4 W10 8114 E 2 13666 P 09/07-19 61 30 71 30 E 8 4 5536 E 3 9889 P 09/07-20 61 30 68 34 NE 8 4 2958 NE 6 6111 P 09/07-21 61 30 66 36 NE 8 8 3 4 W 9 381 NE 7 2333 P 09/07-22 61 30 64 39 NE 7 4 329 N 7 1883 P 09/07-23 61 30 63 42 N 6 4 277 NW 6 1433 P 09/08-00 53 0 61 46 NW 5 5 3 1 W15 226 NW 5 983 P 09/08-01 53 0 59 48 NW 5 1 200 W 6 1014 P 09/08-02 53 0 58 49 W 6 1 173 W 7 1045 P 09/08-03 53 0 57 49 W 7 7 3 1 W16 147 W 8 1076 P 09/08-04 53 0 56 48 W 9 1 148 W 10 1292 P 09/08-05 53 0 56 47 W 12 1 150 W 12 1508 P 09/08-06 53 0 56 47 W 13 13 3 1 W12 151 W 13 1724 P 09/08-07 53 0 57 45 W 13 1 402 W 13 4138 P 09/08-08 53 0 60 42 W 13 1 653 W 12 6552 P 09/08-09 53 0 64 38 NW 12 12 3 1 W 8 905 NW 12 8966 P 09/08-10 53 0 68 34 NW 8 1 3656 NW 9 14792 P 09/08-11 53 0 70 32 NW 6 1 6407 W 6 20617 P 09/08-12 61 30 72 31 N 3 3 3 4 SW 9 9159 W 3 26443 P 09/08-13 61 30 73 30 N 6 4 9456 NW 3 27974 P 09/08-14 61 30 74 30 NE 9 4 9754 NE 3 29506 P 09/08-15 61 30 74 29 E 12 12 4 4 W 9 10051 E 3 31037 P 09/08-16 61 30 74 29 E 12 4 9765 E 2 22775 P 09/08-17 61 30 73 30 E 10 4 9479 CALM 14513 P 09/08-18 61 30 72 30 E 9 9 3 4 W16 9193 CALM 6250 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BOULDER SHERIFF REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090905.BRUMM.02/BOU