FNUS75 KRIW 060004 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTE FIRE...NPS YNP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 604 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1721 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO MONTANA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES STAYING WEST OF THE FIRE. A FEW WEAKER CELLS REMAINED UPSTREAM WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES VERY INFREQUENT AND ISOLATED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE WITH SUNSET AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. ERRATIC OUTFLOWS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HIGH-BASED SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING. ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE AROUND NOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2000. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2 THROUGH 2000...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (62600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (7400 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AFTER 1600. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AT BASE...AROUND 80. AT RIDGE TOP...AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 1400 AND 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (207200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .LABOR DAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS... THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...EDWIN FOLTS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090905.BUTTE.01/RIW