FNUS75 KBOU 082326 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DUNRAVEN FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 518 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 2000 THIS EVENING...BUT SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 1300. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48. MAX HUMIDITY........67-72%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 6-10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN EAST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST UP TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000-2000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-70. MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46. MAX HUMIDITY........71-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 8-9 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78. MIN HUMIDITY........21-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-9 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-7 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTH 7-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 12800-13800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DUNRAVEN FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/08-17 71 43 71 32 W 6 4 8434 W 9 68509 G 09/08-18 76 30 70 33 NW 7 7 3 4 SW15 6628 W 9 54944 F 09/08-19 76 30 66 37 NW 8 4 5507 W 8 42983 F 09/08-20 76 30 63 42 N 9 4 4386 NW 8 31023 P 09/08-21 75 30 60 45 N 10 10 3 4 W20 3265 NW 7 19062 P 09/08-22 75 30 59 49 N 7 4 2918 NW 5 12935 P 09/08-23 75 30 57 52 NE 5 4 2571 NW 2 6808 P 09/09-00 73 6 54 58 E 2 2 2 1 W20 2224 CALM 680 P 09/09-01 73 6 52 60 CALM 1 1873 CALM 1843 P 09/09-02 73 6 50 62 CALM 1 1523 W 2 3005 P 09/09-03 73 6 49 63 SW 3 3 2 1 W17 1172 SW 5 4167 P 09/09-04 73 6 48 66 W 5 1 963 SW 5 3890 P 09/09-05 73 6 48 68 W 6 1 754 W 6 3612 P 09/09-06 61 6 48 72 W 7 7 2 1 W14 546 W 7 3335 P 09/09-07 61 6 50 69 SW 5 1 785 W 7 4443 P 09/09-08 61 6 53 62 S 3 1 1024 W 7 5552 P 09/09-09 61 6 57 54 S 2 2 2 1 W12 1263 W 6 6660 P 09/09-10 61 6 61 46 S 3 1 2857 W 5 9809 P 09/09-11 61 6 63 43 SE 6 1 4450 SW 5 12957 P 09/09-12 53 15 66 40 SE 8 8 2 3 W14 6044 SW 3 16105 P 09/09-13 53 15 67 38 SE 8 3 6132 SW 3 16268 P 09/09-14 53 15 68 37 SE 9 3 6221 S 3 16430 P 09/09-15 53 15 68 36 SE 9 9 2 3 W16 6309 S 3 16593 P 09/09-16 53 15 68 36 SE 10 3 5828 S 3 17165 P 09/09-17 53 15 67 37 S 10 3 5348 S 3 17737 P 09/09-18 55 20 67 36 S 8 8 2 3 W20 4867 S 5 18308 P 09/09-19 55 20 63 41 S 6 3 4083 S 5 16818 P 09/09-20 55 20 60 48 S 3 3 3299 S 6 15327 P 09/09-21 55 20 58 52 S 2 2 2 3 NW13 2515 S 7 13837 P 09/09-22 55 20 56 56 SW 3 3 1785 S 6 9759 P 09/09-23 55 20 55 60 SW 5 3 1056 SW 6 5681 P 09/10-00 55 0 52 67 W 7 7 2 1 W13 327 W 6 1604 P 09/10-01 55 0 50 70 W 8 1 268 W 6 1377 P 09/10-02 55 0 49 73 W 9 1 210 W 7 1150 P 09/10-03 55 0 48 74 W 9 9 2 1 W16 152 W 7 924 P 09/10-04 55 0 47 73 W 9 1 150 W 7 921 P 09/10-05 55 0 47 72 W 10 1 148 W 7 917 P 09/10-06 49 0 47 70 W 9 9 3 1 W14 147 W 7 914 P 09/10-07 49 0 48 64 W 7 1 612 W 7 2775 P 09/10-08 49 0 54 49 W 5 1 1077 NW 6 4637 P 09/10-09 49 0 60 38 W 2 2 4 1 NW14 1542 NW 5 6498 P 09/10-10 49 0 66 30 NW 2 1 5097 NW 6 30146 P 09/10-11 49 0 69 26 NE 2 1 8653 W 7 53793 F 09/10-12 49 10 72 23 E 3 3 3 2 W13 12208 W 7 77441 G 09/10-13 49 10 74 22 E 6 2 12883 W 7 83946 G 09/10-14 49 10 75 21 E 7 2 13558 W 8 90452 G 09/10-15 49 10 76 21 SE 8 8 3 2 NW17 14232 W 8 96957 G 09/10-16 49 10 76 22 SE 6 2 13516 W 9 101084 V 09/10-17 49 10 74 23 S 3 2 12800 NW 9 105211 V 09/10-18 49 10 74 24 CALM 1 2 2 NW15 12084 NW 10 109338 V 09/10-19 49 10 68 27 SW 2 2 8360 NW 9 74719 G 09/10-20 49 10 63 31 W 6 2 4637 NW 8 40100 F 09/10-21 49 10 60 33 W 8 8 3 2 NW16 913 NW 7 5481 P 09/10-22 49 10 58 35 W 9 2 666 NW 8 4122 P 09/10-23 49 10 56 36 W 10 2 419 NW 8 2763 P 09/11-00 38 10 52 40 W 12 12 3 1 W13 172 W 9 1404 P 09/11-01 38 10 49 43 W 12 1 163 W 9 1343 P 09/11-02 38 10 47 47 W 12 1 154 W 9 1281 P 09/11-03 38 10 45 49 W 12 12 3 1 W13 145 W 9 1220 P 09/11-04 38 10 45 50 W 10 1 159 W 9 1216 P 09/11-05 38 10 44 50 NW 8 1 173 NW 8 1211 P 09/11-06 50 10 44 51 NW 7 7 3 1 NW22 186 NW 7 1207 P 09/11-07 50 10 46 51 NW 7 1 1172 NW 8 9282 P 09/11-08 50 10 49 51 N 8 1 2158 NW 9 17357 P 09/11-09 50 10 53 47 N 9 9 2 1 NW23 3144 NW 9 25433 P 09/11-10 50 10 58 39 N 8 1 4725 NW 10 44834 F 09/11-11 50 10 60 35 E 8 1 6307 W 12 64235 G 09/11-12 68 10 62 31 E 7 7 2 2 W33 7888 W 13 83635 G 09/11-13 68 10 64 29 E 7 2 8384 W 13 92021 G 09/11-14 68 10 65 27 E 8 2 8880 W 13 100407 V 09/11-15 68 10 65 27 E 8 8 2 2 W29 9375 W 14 108792 V 09/11-16 68 10 65 27 E 8 2 9169 W 14 105689 V 09/11-17 68 10 64 29 E 7 2 8964 W 13 102586 V 09/11-18 68 10 63 31 E 6 6 2 2 W32 8758 W 13 99483 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090908.DUNRA.02/BOU