FNUS75 KPUB 091023 FWSPUB SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLT MOUNTAIN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 423 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NOTE: THIS FIRE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE JOHNSON GULCH FIRE AND THEY HAVE THE SAME GENERAL ASPECT (I.E., NEAR THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN)...SO THE DISCUSSIONS ARE IDENTICAL. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT OBS ACROSS THE WET MOUNTAIN REGION THIS MORNING INDICATE THE WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE WINDS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...I EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY THEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY RAINS TODAY WILL BE WETTING RAINS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY FOR THIS FIRE IS 40-50%. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION I JUST COPIED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE FIRE WEATHER ZONE FORECAST...AND IT IS BELOW: A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE DISTRICT LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE REGIONS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN...INCREASING 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE SAN JUANS. WE STILL EXPECT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND IT COULD BE QUITE WET. THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE WILL BE THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F. MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 11 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 3500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN EAST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN EAST AROUND 7 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(69 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(49 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50F. MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN WEST AROUND 5 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(64 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F. MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........EAST 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 7500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. $$ FORECASTER...HODANISH REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090908.HOLTM.01/PUB