FNUS75 KPUB 091018
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSON GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
418 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT OBS ACROSS
THE WET MOUNTAIN REGION THIS MORNING INDICATE THE WINDS ARE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE WINDS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...I EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY THEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANY RAINS TODAY WILL BE WETTING RAINS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY FOR THIS
FIRE IS 40-50%. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.


FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION I JUST COPIED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONE FORECAST...AND IT IS BELOW:

A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE DISTRICT LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE REGIONS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN...INCREASING 4 TO
8 DEGREES WARMER OVER THE PLAINS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE REGION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE SAN JUANS.

WE STILL EXPECT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AS
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND IT COULD
BE QUITE WET. THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE WILL BE
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAIN REGION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 5 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN EAST
                    UNTIL 1100...THEN WEST UNTIL 1400...THEN EAST
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(49 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN WEST AROUND
                    5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(64 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST 2 TO 4 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090908.JOHNS.01/PUB