FNUS75 KGJT 092013
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
213 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1405 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING AFTERNOON HEATING TO
AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. AREAL COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR DAY TO DAY. THUS...POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR STORMS TO FIRE UP OVER BURN SITE...AND JUST AS
POSSIBLE FOR STORM TO FIRE UP 5 MILES SOUTH OF BURN SITE. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY BUT ANY
CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODELS
HAVING HARD TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...SO TIMING AND TRACK
OF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    8 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-26500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3600-4700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-26700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090909.BEARP.01/GJT