FNUS75 KGJT 110508
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2250 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA. THIS
WILL TRIGGER HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE FIRE SITE SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-78 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH BY 1300. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED AS OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY
                    SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 20000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    BECOMING GOOD TO VERY GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL
                    BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH BY 2030.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) BY 2100.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 12000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 0900...
                    THEN BECOMING GOOD TO VERY GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    9800 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090910.BEARP.02/GJT