FNUS75 KPUB 101240
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSON GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
640 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION FOR THE IMMEDIATE BURN AREA...

CURRENTLY...MESONET STATIONS IN THE WET MOUNTAIN REGION
WERE INDICATING VERY LIGHT WINDS...WITH QUITE A FEW
STATIONS REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS.

FOR TODAY...I EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT DRIER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6 F WARMER TODAY AND RH VALUES
WILL BE A BIT DRIER. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY.

A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS
COULD BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER RH VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOL AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS:

TODAY......20%
FRIDAY.....30%
SATURDAY...30%
SUNDAY.....30%
MONDAY.....10%

OVERALL DISCUSSION FOR THE REGION IS BELOW:

A SIGNIFICANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA...AND COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
STEADY RAIN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE.

FOR TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON THIS DAY WILL
BE ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOL ALL AREAS AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STEADY RAIN ON THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM UP AGAIN AS THE
STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(52 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST 4 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(62 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50F.
MAX HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 4 TO 8
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN LESS THAN 500
                    FEET AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 11 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(54 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8000
                    FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090910.JOHNS.01/PUB