FNUS73 KUNR 101607
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PCK RX...SD-BKF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1007 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM
DAY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LARGE-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE BURN AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY
BECOMING GUSTY NORTHWEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTABLY
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
                    AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURE.........78 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS VARIABLE 2 TO 5 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 TO 10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
                    ERRATIC OR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
                    MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING IF
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEARBY.
CWR.................13 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7
                    TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 TO 6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...NZ FUELS CRW 8
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090910.PCKRX.02/UNR