FNUS73 KUNR 102033
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PCK RX...SD-BKF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM DAY AND EVENING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SOME ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...IF OTHER STORMS DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE HILLS THEY COULD PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW THAT AFFECTS THE
FIRE THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THE LARGE-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THE BURN AREA AROUND 1100 PM MDT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON FRIDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 TO 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 28
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62.
RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...NZ FUELS CRW 8
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090910.PCKRX.03/UNR