FNUS75 KBOU 112157 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGS PEAK SAR...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 357 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-35. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5-9 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTH 7-11 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 9-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43. MIN HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-11 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-36. MAX HUMIDITY........85-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 600-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-56. MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LONGS PEAK SAR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/11-15 58 0 38 53 NW 5 5 4 1 NW31 5568 NW 10 52152 F 09/11-16 58 0 38 55 N 5 1 3931 NW 9 35982 P 09/11-17 58 0 38 56 NE 6 1 2294 NE 8 19813 P 09/11-18 63 0 37 55 E 6 6 4 1 NW37 658 E 7 3644 P 09/11-19 63 0 36 53 E 7 1 694 E 8 5078 P 09/11-20 63 0 34 51 SE 8 1 730 E 10 6513 P 09/11-21 53 0 33 50 SE 8 8 4 1 NW52 766 E 12 7947 P 09/11-22 53 0 32 58 S 8 1 709 SE 10 6391 P 09/11-23 53 0 32 69 SW 9 1 652 S 8 4836 P 09/12-00 58 0 31 79 W 9 9 4 1 NW54 595 S 7 3280 P 09/12-01 58 0 30 80 W 10 1 528 S 6 2798 P 09/12-02 58 0 29 80 W 12 1 460 SW 6 2316 P 09/12-03 65 0 29 80 W 12 12 4 1 NW55 392 SW 6 1835 P 09/12-04 65 0 28 82 W 12 1 369 SW 5 1508 P 09/12-05 65 0 28 86 W 10 1 345 W 3 1181 P 09/12-06 57 16 28 88 W 9 9 4 1 NW45 322 W 3 854 P 09/12-07 57 16 29 86 W 9 1 845 SW 3 2242 P 09/12-08 57 16 31 80 W 8 1 1368 SW 3 3631 P 09/12-09 57 16 33 73 W 8 8 4 1 NW48 1891 S 3 5020 P 09/12-10 57 16 36 68 W 8 1 2529 S 5 10213 P 09/12-11 57 16 37 66 SW 8 1 3168 SW 5 15405 P 09/12-12 78 40 38 65 SW 8 8 4 2 NW45 3806 SW 6 20598 P 09/12-13 78 40 39 64 SW 9 2 3875 SW 7 24670 P 09/12-14 78 40 39 63 S 12 2 3945 SW 8 28742 P 09/12-15 78 40 40 63 S 13 13 4 2 W43 4014 SW 9 32814 P 09/12-16 78 40 40 64 S 13 2 3819 S 10 32951 P 09/12-17 78 40 39 67 S 12 2 3624 S 10 33087 P 09/12-18 78 40 39 67 S 12 12 4 2 W47 3429 S 12 33223 P 09/12-19 78 40 37 71 S 13 2 2885 S 12 27938 P 09/12-20 78 40 36 76 S 13 2 2341 S 12 22652 P 09/12-21 78 40 35 78 S 14 22 4 2 W47 1797 S 12 17367 P 09/12-22 78 40 34 81 S 14 2 1647 S 12 15973 P 09/12-23 78 40 33 82 SW 14 2 1496 S 12 14579 P 09/13-00 62 20 32 85 SW 14 22 4 1 W56 1345 S 12 13186 P 09/13-01 62 20 31 86 SW 14 1 1103 S 12 10858 P 09/13-02 62 20 31 86 SW 13 1 862 SW 12 8530 P 09/13-03 62 20 30 86 SW 12 12 4 1 W61 620 SW 12 6202 P 09/13-04 62 20 30 84 SW 10 1 496 SW 9 4569 P 09/13-05 62 20 30 83 W 8 1 372 SW 8 2935 P 09/13-06 56 10 30 82 W 7 7 4 1 W61 247 W 6 1301 P 09/13-07 56 10 30 80 W 8 1 622 SW 8 5136 P 09/13-08 56 10 35 67 W 8 1 996 SW 9 8970 P 09/13-09 56 10 40 58 W 8 8 4 1 W52 1370 SW 10 12804 P 09/13-10 56 10 44 50 SW 7 1 2082 SW 14 29782 P 09/13-11 56 10 46 47 SW 7 1 2794 SW 17 46759 F 09/13-12 66 30 48 44 SW 10 10 4 4 W38 3506 SW 21 63737 G 09/13-13 66 30 49 43 SW 10 4 4704 W 22 91448 G 09/13-14 66 30 50 41 SW 9 4 5902 W 23 119159 V 09/13-15 66 30 51 40 SW 9 9 4 4 W30 7100 W 24 146870 V 09/13-16 66 30 51 40 SW 9 4 6105 W 21 116983 V 09/13-17 66 30 50 42 W 8 4 5109 W 18 87097 G 09/13-18 66 30 50 41 W 7 7 4 4 W32 4114 W 16 57210 F 09/13-19 66 30 47 45 W 8 4 2874 W 14 39319 P 09/13-20 66 30 44 49 W 8 4 1635 W 13 21428 P 09/13-21 66 30 42 51 W 8 8 4 4 W25 395 W 10 3537 P 09/13-22 66 30 41 52 W 9 4 338 SW 12 3181 P 09/13-23 66 30 40 54 W 10 4 280 SW 12 2825 P 09/14-00 30 0 38 57 SW 12 12 4 1 SW21 223 SW 13 2469 P 09/14-01 30 0 37 58 SW 10 1 242 SW 13 2537 P 09/14-02 30 0 36 60 SW 10 1 262 W 12 2606 P 09/14-03 30 0 35 60 SW 9 9 4 1 SW20 281 W 12 2675 P 09/14-04 30 0 34 60 SW 10 1 263 W 12 2511 P 09/14-05 30 0 34 60 SW 10 1 244 W 12 2348 P 09/14-06 30 0 34 60 SW 12 12 4 1 SW16 226 W 12 2185 P 09/14-07 30 0 35 57 W 13 1 339 W 12 3620 P 09/14-08 30 0 37 53 W 14 1 452 W 13 5055 P 09/14-09 30 0 40 48 W 15 24 4 1 SW17 564 W 13 6490 P 09/14-10 30 0 43 44 W 16 1 1581 W 12 14059 P 09/14-11 30 0 44 42 W 17 1 2598 W 10 21628 P 09/14-12 55 20 46 40 W 18 30 4 3 SW18 3616 W 9 29197 P 09/14-13 55 20 47 40 W 17 3 4097 W 8 28735 P 09/14-14 55 20 47 40 W 16 3 4579 W 7 28274 P 09/14-15 55 20 48 40 W 16 25 4 3 SW16 5061 W 6 27813 P 09/14-16 55 20 47 41 W 15 3 4470 W 6 23456 P 09/14-17 55 20 46 43 W 14 3 3878 W 6 19099 P 09/14-18 55 20 46 43 W 13 13 4 3 SW17 3287 W 5 14743 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PATTY SHAFER REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20090911.LONGS.01/BOU