FNUS75 KGJT 120401
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1905 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A VERY USUAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE NORTH, CAUSING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST. BOTH DAYS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

*** NOTE: HEY DAN, HOW ABOUT SOME ON-SITE OBSERVATIONS? ***


.TODAY (SATURDAY)...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) ABOUT NOON.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0900, SHIFTING
                    TO WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KT/FT) UNTIL 0900, THEN
                    FAIR. IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900, THEN INCREASING TO
                    10000 FT AGL ABOUT 1600.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0900, THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 10 MPH. AFTER 1400 INCREASING
                    TO WEST AT 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) UNTIL 2200, THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000, THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    BY MIDNIGHT (LESS THAN 10000 KT/FT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000, THEN DECREASING TO 1000
                    FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 MPH UNTIL 2100, THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KT/FT) UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    FAIR. INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1500.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0930, THEN INCREASING TO
                    10000 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 0930, THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090911.BEARP.01/GJT