FNUS75 KRIW 111815
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1215 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST.  CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE OVERNIGHT AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM
THE EAST.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING.  IT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE HUMID.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO MONTANA
WITH WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN...THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80 AT 7000 FEET AND 69 AT 9200 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT AT 7000 FEET AND 20 PERCENT AT 9200 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BELOW 8000 FEET. ABOVE
                    8000 FEET LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT WESTERLY 5 TO 8
                    MPH AT THE SADDLE ON THE UPPER PORTION OF THE HORSETAIL
                    CREEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE ALONG THE HORSETAIL
                    CREEK BETWEEN 8000 FEET AND THE SADDLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (80700
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT AT 7000 FEET AND 65 PERCENT AT 9200 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BUT CONTINUED
                    NORTHERLY 9 TO 10 MPH ALONG THE WEST FORK. AFTER MIDNIGHT
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH EXCEPT EAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    THROUGH THE UPPER SADDLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 12 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3400-43000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73 AT 7000 FEET AND 62 AT 9200 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PERCENT AT 7000 FEET AND 24 PERCENT AT 9200 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BELOW 8000 FEET. ABOVE 8000 FEET...
                    EASTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE SADDLE AND THEN CHANNELED
                    DOWNSLOPE ALONG THE UPPER HORSETAIL CREEK.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (19100-63600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
12 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...MCFARLAND
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090911.LOWER.01/RIW