FNUS75 KGJT 130317
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW RX...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2115 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY AIDING INSTABILITY AND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE SITE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 THROUGH THE MORNING.
                    THEN BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4-7 MPH GUSTING TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2000,
                    THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (1700-28800 KNOT-FT) AFTER 2000.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 THROUGH THE MORNING.
                    THEN BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 7-12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL EARLY MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    8100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...DAN HUISJEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090912.BEARP.01/GJT