FNUS75 KBOU 151544 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COFFINTOP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 944 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS TODAY...ALLOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS READINGS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOTE...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE NORMALLY NOT INCLUDED IN SPOT FORECASTS BECAUSE THE LAL IS THE ANTICIPATED AREAL DENSITY OF LIGHTNING OVER A LARGER AREA THAN IS NORMALLY COVERED BY A SPOT FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOONS LALS IN YOUR AREA WILL BE 4. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1300...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-73. MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST 8-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 7500-8500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1600. GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-52. MAX HUMIDITY........72-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 8-14 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 500-1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-70. MIN HUMIDITY........38-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6500-7500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COFFINTOP. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/15-09 35 10 61 51 SE 3 3 2 1 S 9 3767 E 5 14861 P 09/15-10 35 10 64 47 SE 3 1 5199 SE 5 21476 P 09/15-11 35 10 65 47 SE 3 1 6632 SE 5 28091 P 09/15-12 74 10 67 46 SE 3 3 2 1 S10 8065 SE 5 34706 P 09/15-13 74 40 68 45 SE 5 4 8278 SE 6 38616 P 09/15-14 74 40 69 44 SE 6 4 8492 SE 6 42527 F 09/15-15 68 40 69 43 E 7 7 2 4 SE13 8706 SE 6 46438 F 09/15-16 68 40 69 44 E 9 4 8426 SE 8 57793 F 09/15-17 68 40 68 46 E 10 4 8147 SE 10 69148 G 09/15-18 79 40 67 46 E 13 13 3 4 SE14 7868 SE 12 80503 G 09/15-19 79 40 64 50 E 12 4 5579 SE 10 55955 F 09/15-20 79 40 61 55 E 10 4 3291 E 9 31406 P 09/15-21 79 40 60 57 E 9 9 2 4 E20 1002 E 8 6858 P 09/15-22 79 40 58 61 SE 8 4 757 E 7 4848 P 09/15-23 79 40 57 64 SE 7 4 511 E 5 2837 P 09/16-00 44 3 55 70 SE 6 6 2 1 E21 265 E 3 827 P 09/16-01 44 3 54 72 SE 6 1 249 E 3 727 P 09/16-02 44 3 52 72 E 6 1 232 NE 3 626 P 09/16-03 44 3 51 72 E 6 6 2 1 SE14 216 NE 2 526 P 09/16-04 44 3 51 70 E 6 1 211 NE 3 588 P 09/16-05 44 3 51 67 E 6 1 207 NE 3 649 P 09/16-06 45 3 51 65 E 6 6 3 1 E14 202 NE 5 711 P 09/16-07 45 3 52 61 E 6 1 1191 NE 6 8949 P 09/16-08 45 3 54 58 E 7 1 2180 NE 8 17187 P 09/16-09 45 3 56 52 E 7 7 2 1 E16 3168 E 9 25425 P 09/16-10 45 3 59 47 E 7 1 4425 E 9 37717 P 09/16-11 45 3 61 45 E 8 1 5681 E 10 50009 F 09/16-12 50 16 62 43 E 8 8 2 3 E21 6938 E 10 62301 G 09/16-13 50 16 63 43 E 8 3 7027 E 9 58079 F 09/16-14 50 16 63 43 E 9 3 7116 E 9 53857 F 09/16-15 50 16 64 44 E 9 9 3 3 E18 7205 E 8 49635 F 09/16-16 50 16 63 45 E 9 3 6782 E 8 46191 F 09/16-17 50 16 62 48 E 9 3 6359 E 8 42746 F 09/16-18 48 16 62 48 E 9 9 3 3 E20 5936 E 8 39302 P 09/16-19 48 16 60 51 E 9 3 4665 E 8 31481 P 09/16-20 48 16 58 54 E 8 3 3394 E 8 23661 P 09/16-21 48 16 57 54 E 8 8 2 3 E21 2123 E 8 15840 P 09/16-22 48 16 55 54 E 7 3 1771 E 7 12189 P 09/16-23 48 16 55 53 E 6 3 1419 E 7 8538 P 09/17-00 24 0 53 53 E 5 5 2 1 E21 1067 E 6 4887 P 09/17-01 24 0 52 53 E 5 1 827 E 3 3392 P 09/17-02 24 0 51 52 E 3 1 587 NE 2 1896 P 09/17-03 24 0 50 52 E 3 3 4 1 E17 347 CALM 400 P 09/17-04 24 0 50 51 E 3 1 355 CALM 472 P 09/17-05 24 0 50 50 E 3 1 363 CALM 544 P 09/17-06 24 0 50 50 E 3 3 4 1 E16 370 SW 2 615 P 09/17-07 24 0 51 48 E 3 1 1305 S 2 4306 P 09/17-08 24 0 53 45 E 2 1 2239 E 3 7997 P 09/17-09 24 0 57 42 E 2 2 4 1 E15 3174 E 5 11688 P 09/17-10 24 0 60 39 E 2 1 4286 E 5 19706 P 09/17-11 24 0 61 38 E 3 1 5398 E 6 27725 P 09/17-12 27 7 63 38 E 3 3 4 1 E14 6511 E 6 35743 P 09/17-13 27 7 63 38 E 5 1 6897 E 6 36380 P 09/17-14 27 7 64 38 E 7 1 7283 E 6 37016 P 09/17-15 27 7 65 38 E 8 8 4 1 E 9 7669 E 6 37653 P 09/17-16 27 7 64 39 E 8 1 7033 E 6 34641 P 09/17-17 27 7 63 41 E 8 1 6396 E 6 31628 P 09/17-18 27 7 63 41 E 8 8 4 1 NE 7 5760 E 6 28615 P 09/17-19 27 7 60 45 E 7 1 4339 E 6 21322 P 09/17-20 27 7 58 48 SE 6 1 2918 E 6 14028 P 09/17-21 27 7 56 48 SE 5 5 3 1 NE 9 1498 SE 5 6734 P 09/17-22 27 7 55 49 SE 5 1 1116 SE 5 4759 P 09/17-23 27 7 54 49 SE 3 1 734 S 3 2785 P 09/18-00 8 0 52 51 SE 3 3 4 1 NE12 352 S 2 810 P 09/18-01 8 0 51 52 SE 2 1 304 SW 2 723 P 09/18-02 8 0 50 53 SE 2 1 255 SW 3 637 P 09/18-03 8 0 49 54 CALM 1 4 1 NE10 206 SW 3 551 P 09/18-04 8 0 49 54 CALM 1 200 SW 2 499 P 09/18-05 8 0 49 54 CALM 1 194 SW 2 447 P 09/18-06 8 0 48 54 CALM 1 4 1 NE13 188 SW 2 395 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MOLINARI REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090915.COFFI.01/BOU