FNUS72 KILM 151554
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR RMS TRISTATE BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1205 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXISTS AT 9000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
WHICH WILL PREVENT AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO
SHOWERS. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AFFECT AREAS WITHIN 10-15
MILES OF THE COAST WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
INLAND AS THE TRISTATE BURN SITE.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6100-6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........14     30     40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............86     88     87
RH..............41     39     41
20 FT WIND......W 1    SW 2   SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   6200   6200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6    W 5    W 5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                       6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                       WEST AROUND 2 MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........41     36     37     36     36     43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............84     77     72     68     65     64
RH..............46     62     75     90     99     100
20 FT WIND......SE 2   S 3    S 3    S 2    S 2    SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....6100   500    500    BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3   S 5    S 5    S 6    S 5    S 5

$$
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090915.RMSTR.01/ILM