FNUS72 KILM 151646 AAA FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR RMS TRISTATE BURN...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1246 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXISTS AT 9000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WHICH WILL PREVENT AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO SHOWERS. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AFFECT AREAS WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF THE COAST WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS THE TRISTATE BURN SITE. THE FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS AN ISSUE OF WINDS TOO LIGHT TO PRODUCE ADEQUATE SMOKE VENTILATION RATES. OBSERVED WINDS FROM THE BURN SITE (4 MPH PEAKING AT 8 MPH) WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE DAY. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON WEATHER FORECAST MODELS... SURROUNDING WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND FROM LATEST WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........87 AT IGNITION...MAX 89. RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 3-5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6100-6200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 MPH. VENTILATION RATE....18400 TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........14 34 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............84 86 86 RH..............49 43 41 20 FT WIND......S 3 SW 3 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST. MIX HGT (FT)....3500 6200 6200 TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 W 5 W 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 2 MPH LATE. VENTILATION RATE....1500 OR LESS TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........41 36 37 36 36 43 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............84 77 72 68 65 64 RH..............46 62 75 90 99 100 20 FT WIND......SE 2 S 3 S 3 S 2 S 2 SW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....6100 500 500 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 5 S 5 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090915.RMSTR.01/ILM