FNUS75 KBOU 152054 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR S-3...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 254 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW MIXING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 7500 FEET AGL...WHERE EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL EXIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF MIXING ONLY MAKES TO 6000 FEET...EAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AND MIXING WILL ONLY BE FAIR. GIVEN ANY SCENARIO...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND WILL PUSH ANY SMOKE WEST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-80. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10000-11000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 9-10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. MIN HUMIDITY........36-42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 7000-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR S-3. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/15-14 44 20 77 33 NE 7 3 10930 SE 12 110598 V 09/15-15 71 20 78 33 NE 7 7 2 3 SE17 11279 SE 12 117327 V 09/15-16 71 20 77 33 NE 8 3 10521 SE 12 103801 V 09/15-17 71 20 76 34 E 9 3 9763 SE 10 90275 G 09/15-18 79 20 75 33 E 10 10 2 3 SE15 9005 E 10 76749 G 09/15-19 79 20 71 37 E 7 3 6216 E 8 51889 F 09/15-20 79 20 67 42 E 3 3 3427 E 6 27028 P 09/15-21 79 20 65 45 E 2 2 2 3 E14 638 E 3 2167 P 09/15-22 79 0 63 49 NE 3 1 493 NE 3 1597 P 09/15-23 79 0 62 54 N 6 1 348 N 3 1027 P 09/16-00 50 0 59 61 NW 7 7 2 1 E22 203 N 2 458 P 09/16-01 50 0 57 66 NW 7 1 224 N 2 567 P 09/16-02 50 0 56 70 NW 6 1 245 N 3 675 P 09/16-03 50 0 54 71 NW 5 5 2 1 E22 266 N 3 784 P 09/16-04 50 0 54 73 NW 3 1 291 N 5 1175 P 09/16-05 50 0 54 75 NW 3 1 316 N 6 1566 P 09/16-06 42 0 53 77 NW 5 5 2 1 E25 341 N 7 1956 P 09/16-07 42 0 55 70 N 5 1 1561 NE 9 17004 P 09/16-08 42 0 57 63 N 6 1 2781 NE 12 32051 P 09/16-09 42 0 61 54 NE 6 6 2 1 E38 4001 NE 14 47099 F 09/16-10 42 0 64 47 NE 7 1 5063 E 14 64395 G 09/16-11 42 0 66 45 NE 7 1 6126 E 15 81691 G 09/16-12 66 10 68 43 E 8 8 2 2 E35 7189 E 16 98987 G 09/16-13 66 10 69 41 E 8 2 7382 E 15 94099 G 09/16-14 66 10 69 40 E 9 2 7576 E 14 89211 G 09/16-15 66 10 70 39 E 9 9 2 2 E28 7770 E 13 84324 G 09/16-16 66 10 69 39 E 8 2 7433 E 12 75924 G 09/16-17 66 10 68 41 SE 7 2 7095 E 10 67525 G 09/16-18 56 10 68 41 S 6 6 2 2 E24 6758 E 10 59126 F 09/16-19 56 10 65 44 S 5 2 5731 E 9 46303 F 09/16-20 56 10 63 46 SW 5 2 4705 E 8 33480 P 09/16-21 56 10 61 46 W 6 6 2 2 E22 3679 E 7 20658 P 09/16-22 56 10 60 46 W 6 2 2692 NE 5 14268 P 09/16-23 56 10 59 45 W 6 2 1706 NE 3 7879 P 09/17-00 13 0 57 46 NW 6 6 2 1 E23 720 NE 2 1490 P 09/17-01 13 0 56 47 W 6 1 591 N 2 1347 P 09/17-02 13 0 55 47 W 6 1 462 W 3 1203 P 09/17-03 13 0 54 48 W 6 6 2 1 E18 333 W 3 1060 P 09/17-04 13 0 54 48 W 6 1 368 W 3 1160 P 09/17-05 13 0 54 48 W 7 1 403 W 3 1260 P 09/17-06 13 0 53 49 W 7 7 3 1 E15 438 W 3 1360 P 09/17-07 13 0 55 47 NW 5 1 1388 SW 3 3680 P 09/17-08 13 0 57 43 N 3 1 2337 SE 3 6000 P 09/17-09 13 0 61 39 CALM 1 3 1 E16 3287 E 3 8320 P 09/17-10 13 0 65 35 E 2 1 4398 E 5 17724 P 09/17-11 13 0 66 35 E 5 1 5509 E 6 27127 P 09/17-12 19 0 68 33 E 6 6 3 1 E16 6619 E 7 36531 P 09/17-13 19 0 69 33 E 7 1 7003 E 7 38621 P 09/17-14 19 0 70 33 E 7 1 7386 E 7 40710 F 09/17-15 19 0 70 33 E 8 8 2 1 E10 7769 E 7 42800 F 09/17-16 19 0 70 34 E 8 1 7379 E 6 39839 P 09/17-17 19 0 69 35 E 8 1 6988 E 6 36879 P 09/17-18 19 0 69 36 E 7 7 2 1 NE 7 6598 E 6 33919 P 09/17-19 19 0 65 39 SE 6 1 4600 E 6 23364 P 09/17-20 19 0 62 42 SE 5 1 2601 SE 5 12809 P 09/17-21 19 0 61 43 S 2 2 2 1 NE 9 602 SE 5 2254 P 09/17-22 19 0 60 43 S 3 1 501 S 5 1809 P 09/17-23 19 0 58 44 SW 3 1 400 SW 3 1364 P 09/18-00 5 0 56 46 W 5 5 2 1 N 9 299 SW 3 919 P 09/18-01 5 0 55 47 W 6 1 273 SW 5 938 P 09/18-02 5 0 54 49 W 6 1 246 SW 5 956 P 09/18-03 5 0 53 50 W 7 7 3 1 N10 220 SW 5 975 P 09/18-04 5 0 53 51 W 7 1 219 W 5 973 P 09/18-05 5 0 52 52 W 6 1 218 W 5 971 P 09/18-06 5 0 52 52 W 6 6 3 1 N15 217 W 5 969 P 09/18-07 5 0 53 50 W 5 1 904 W 3 1591 P 09/18-08 5 0 57 44 N 3 1 1591 NW 2 2213 P 09/18-09 5 0 62 37 CALM 1 3 1 N14 2278 CALM 2835 P 09/18-10 5 0 66 32 NE 3 1 3232 N 2 7409 P 09/18-11 5 0 68 31 E 5 1 4186 N 3 11983 P 09/18-12 20 0 70 29 E 6 6 3 1 N12 5140 NE 3 16558 P 09/18-13 20 0 71 29 E 7 1 5370 NE 5 19377 P 09/18-14 20 0 72 29 E 7 1 5600 NE 5 22196 P 09/18-15 20 0 73 29 E 6 6 3 1 N13 5830 NE 5 25015 P 09/18-16 20 0 72 30 E 6 1 5658 NE 5 24587 P 09/18-17 20 0 71 32 E 5 1 5485 E 5 24158 P 09/18-18 20 0 71 32 SE 5 5 2 1 N16 5312 E 5 23730 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ZADER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090916.S3___.01/BOU