FNUS74 KEPZ 161549
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BAILEY RX...NMLNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
949 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0935 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
RESPECTIVELY.  THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ADDED INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW...FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE LOW ITSELF DRAWS CLOSER
TO THE BURN SITE...FROM ARIZONA. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RUNOFF...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 1 TO 4 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING AND
                    SHIFTING EAST 9 TO 16 WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH AFTER 1100L.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 10 11 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 11 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH
                    EARLY...WEAKENING TO 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.


$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090916.BAILE.01/EPZ