FNUS75 KMSO 161819
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR SELWAY FALLS CABIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1219 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1205 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BEFORE THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO INCREASE CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UNIT. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR WITH THESE AS THEY PASS OVER THE AREA. AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UNIT OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE UPPER REACHES OF THE FIRE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UNIT BETWEEN 0500-0800 PDT...SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UNIT THURSDAY AND
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE BASE OF THE FIRE...ALTHOUGH WITH
SHELTERING AND THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DRAINAGE...MAY
NOT SEE VERY STRONG GUSTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92 BOTTOM...75-80 TOP
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT BOTTOM...30-35 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH BOTTOM...UPSLOPE BECOMING
                    SOUTH 4-8 MPH TOP.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 BOTTOM...55-60 TOP.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 BOTTOM.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 BOTTOM...73-78 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BOTTOM...LOCAL GUSTS TO 10 MPH NEAR
                    STORMS. SOUTH WINDS TO 6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-10
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...JBROGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090916.SELWA.01/MSO