FNUS76 KPQR 162321
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR TUMBLEBUG...USFS WNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
421 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1542 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME AREAS OF RAIN AS
FAR EAST AS THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE FIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES. HOWEVER THE RAIN IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY CHANGE FUEL CONDITIONS...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. LONGER RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW IN SUGGESTING
THAT A MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE DISTRICT.

CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (CWR) 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER.
THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.


.REST OF TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING
                    OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CWR (%).............LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........IN THE UPPER 60S.
HUMIDITY............45-55 PERCENT...RISING.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-9 MPH. GUSTS 15-20 MPH...
                    ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIDGETOPS.

TIME (PDT)      5 PM
TEMP............68
RH..............50
20 FT WIND......W-SW 7
   MAX GUST.....15-20


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
                    DURING THE EVENING.
CWR (%).............LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 3-7 MPH WITH EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO
                    12 MPH...DECREASING AND BECOMING DOWN-DRAINAGE
                    0-3 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT  2 AM    4 AM
TEMP............67     62     59     55      53      51
RH..............55     70     80     70      78      85
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 5    W 3    VRB 0-1 S-SE 1  S-SE 2
   MAX GUST.....13     12     8      3       5       5


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MORNING CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SUNNY.
CWR (%).............0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS EARLY. WIND BECOMING NORTH TO
                    NORTHWEST 2-5 MPH AFTER 1100.


$$
FORECASTER...WEAGLE
REQUESTED BY...MATT WHITE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090916.TUMBL.01/PQR