FNUS75 KBOU 171740 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE PROJECT...NPS ...CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS FORECAST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1140 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SURFACE WIND PATTERN WILL EXIST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. SOME MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 7-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47. MAX HUMIDITY........70-77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL...LOWERING TO 200 FT BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....80. MIN HUMIDITY........29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING EAST 5-10 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE PROJECT. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/17-11 7 0 72 43 E 5 1 5603 E 5 20868 P 09/17-12 20 0 75 39 E 6 6 2 1 E13 7324 E 5 28112 P 09/17-13 20 0 76 37 E 7 1 8002 E 5 33645 P 09/17-14 20 0 78 34 E 7 1 8681 E 5 39177 P 09/17-15 20 0 78 32 SE 8 8 2 1 E 7 9359 E 6 44710 F 09/17-16 20 0 78 32 SE 9 1 8657 SE 6 42924 F 09/17-17 20 0 76 33 E 10 1 7956 SE 6 41137 F 09/17-18 20 0 76 33 E 12 12 2 1 E 5 7255 SE 6 39351 P 09/17-19 20 0 71 38 E 8 1 4927 E 7 26943 P 09/17-20 20 0 66 45 E 7 1 2600 E 8 14535 P 09/17-21 20 0 64 49 E 6 6 2 1 E 6 272 E 9 2127 P 09/17-22 20 0 61 53 NE 5 1 258 E 7 1547 P 09/17-23 20 0 60 57 N 5 1 243 NE 5 967 P 09/18-00 5 0 56 64 N 5 5 2 1 E13 229 N 2 387 P 09/18-01 5 0 54 69 N 5 1 221 N 3 554 P 09/18-02 5 0 52 72 NW 6 1 214 N 3 721 P 09/18-03 5 0 51 75 NW 6 6 2 1 S 5 206 NW 5 888 P 09/18-04 5 0 50 76 NW 6 1 230 N 5 957 P 09/18-05 5 0 50 75 NW 6 1 253 N 5 1026 P 09/18-06 5 0 49 77 N 3 3 2 1 N 7 243 N 5 935 P 09/18-07 5 0 50 75 N 2 1 418 N 3 1256 P 09/18-08 5 0 53 69 N 2 1 593 N 3 1578 P 09/18-09 5 0 57 61 NE 2 2 2 1 NE14 768 N 2 1900 P 09/18-10 5 0 62 52 NE 3 1 2292 NE 3 7377 P 09/18-11 5 0 68 44 E 5 1 3816 E 3 12854 P 09/18-12 14 0 72 38 E 6 6 2 1 E13 5339 E 3 18331 P 09/18-13 14 0 75 34 E 7 1 6378 E 3 22367 P 09/18-14 22 0 78 31 E 8 1 7418 E 5 26404 P 09/18-15 22 0 79 29 E 8 8 2 1 E 6 8457 E 5 30441 P 09/18-16 22 0 79 29 E 8 1 8013 E 5 34545 P 09/18-17 22 0 78 29 E 8 1 7569 E 6 38649 P 09/18-18 22 0 77 30 E 8 8 2 1 N 2 7125 E 7 42753 F 09/18-19 22 0 74 33 E 7 1 4848 E 8 29294 P 09/18-20 22 0 69 40 SE 6 1 2571 E 8 15835 P 09/18-21 16 0 64 47 SE 5 5 2 1 NE 6 295 SE 9 2375 P 09/18-22 16 0 60 53 E 3 1 270 E 7 1747 P 09/18-23 16 0 58 58 NE 3 1 246 E 5 1118 P 09/19-00 12 0 55 63 NE 3 3 2 1 E 6 222 E 2 489 P 09/19-01 12 0 53 68 N 3 1 225 NE 3 608 P 09/19-02 12 0 52 71 N 5 1 228 N 3 726 P 09/19-03 12 0 51 74 NW 5 5 2 1 CALM 231 N 5 845 P 09/19-04 12 0 50 76 NW 5 1 242 N 5 903 P 09/19-05 12 0 49 78 NW 3 1 254 N 5 961 P 09/19-06 12 0 48 79 NW 3 3 2 1 NW 9 266 N 5 1019 P 09/19-07 12 0 50 74 N 3 1 488 N 3 1366 P 09/19-08 12 0 53 65 NE 5 1 711 N 3 1713 P 09/19-09 12 0 57 56 NE 6 6 2 1 NW10 933 NE 2 2060 P 09/19-10 12 0 63 46 NE 7 1 2341 E 2 4775 P 09/19-11 20 0 69 37 E 7 1 3749 SE 2 7490 P 09/19-12 20 0 73 32 SE 8 8 2 1 N 8 5157 S 2 10205 P 09/19-13 28 0 77 28 SE 8 1 6455 SW 2 12802 P 09/19-14 28 0 80 25 SE 8 1 7753 NW 2 15398 P 09/19-15 28 0 81 24 SE 8 8 3 1 NW15 9051 N 2 17995 P 09/19-16 28 0 81 24 SE 7 1 8535 NE 2 19535 P 09/19-17 28 0 81 24 SE 7 1 8020 E 3 21075 P 09/19-18 28 0 80 25 SE 6 6 3 1 NW18 7504 SE 3 22614 P 09/19-19 28 0 77 28 SE 6 1 5093 SE 5 15607 P 09/19-20 28 0 72 33 E 5 1 2683 E 6 8599 P 09/19-21 16 0 67 40 E 5 5 3 1 NW16 272 E 7 1592 P 09/19-22 16 0 63 47 E 5 1 238 E 6 1187 P 09/19-23 16 0 59 54 NE 3 1 203 NE 3 783 P 09/20-00 17 0 56 60 NE 3 3 3 1 NW14 169 NE 2 379 P 09/20-01 17 0 54 65 N 3 1 159 N 3 438 P 09/20-02 17 0 53 69 N 3 1 149 N 3 497 P 09/20-03 17 0 51 71 NW 5 5 5 1 NW10 139 NW 5 556 P 09/20-04 17 0 50 74 NW 5 1 126 NW 5 554 P 09/20-05 17 0 49 75 W 6 1 114 W 6 551 P 09/20-06 17 0 49 76 W 6 6 5 1 NW10 101 W 6 549 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20090917.LILYL.01/BOU