FNUS75 KBOU 180340 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE PROJECT...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 935 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 400-1400 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 6-11 MPH UNTIL 0900 BECOMING EAST 6-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9400-10200 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300. FAIR AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LILY LAKE PROJECT. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/18-06 5 0 43 53 W 3 3 3 1 NE 6 189 W 2 451 P 09/18-07 5 0 42 56 SW 2 1 956 NW 3 2574 P 09/18-08 5 0 42 58 S 2 1 1723 N 3 4696 P 09/18-09 5 0 46 51 SE 2 2 3 1 NE12 2490 NE 3 6819 P 09/18-10 5 0 50 45 SE 3 1 4024 NE 5 21588 P 09/18-11 37 0 54 40 SE 6 1 5558 NE 7 36357 P 09/18-12 37 0 57 37 E 8 8 3 1 NE16 7092 NE 8 51125 F 09/18-13 37 10 59 35 E 9 2 7088 NE 7 45772 F 09/18-14 37 10 60 35 E 9 2 7084 E 7 40418 F 09/18-15 37 10 59 38 E 10 10 4 2 NE10 7080 E 6 35065 P 09/18-16 37 10 57 41 E 9 2 6061 E 7 32905 P 09/18-17 37 10 56 42 E 9 2 5042 E 7 30746 P 09/18-18 37 1 54 45 E 7 7 3 1 N 6 4022 E 8 28587 P 09/18-19 37 1 50 51 SE 6 1 4589 E 6 23128 P 09/18-20 37 1 49 52 SE 5 1 3746 E 7 22253 P 09/18-21 28 0 47 52 SE 5 5 4 1 NE 7 2903 SE 8 21378 P 09/18-22 28 0 46 53 S 5 1 2151 SE 7 15171 P 09/18-23 28 0 45 53 SW 6 1 1398 S 6 8964 P 09/19-00 15 0 43 55 SW 7 7 5 1 E 6 645 S 5 2756 P 09/19-01 15 0 42 55 W 8 1 511 SW 6 2349 P 09/19-02 15 0 41 56 W 8 1 377 SW 7 1943 P 09/19-03 15 0 41 55 W 9 9 5 1 SE 3 243 W 7 1536 P 09/19-04 15 0 41 55 W 9 1 223 W 7 1433 P 09/19-05 15 0 41 56 W 9 1 203 W 8 1329 P 09/19-06 15 0 41 55 W 9 9 4 1 S 3 183 W 8 1226 P 09/19-07 15 0 43 54 NW 9 1 453 W 7 2490 P 09/19-08 15 0 45 51 NW 8 1 724 NW 7 3754 P 09/19-09 15 0 48 47 N 8 8 4 1 S 5 995 NW 6 5018 P 09/19-10 15 0 51 43 N 8 1 2935 NW 6 14838 P 09/19-11 35 0 55 38 NE 7 1 4875 NW 6 24658 P 09/19-12 35 0 58 35 NE 7 7 3 1 SW 6 6815 NW 6 34478 P 09/19-13 55 20 60 34 E 8 3 7974 NW 6 42236 F 09/19-14 55 20 61 33 E 8 3 9134 W 6 49994 F 09/19-15 55 20 62 32 E 9 9 3 3 W10 10294 W 7 57752 F 09/19-16 55 20 62 32 SE 9 3 9798 W 6 53027 F 09/19-17 55 20 62 33 SE 8 3 9303 W 6 48302 F 09/19-18 55 20 61 33 S 8 8 3 3 NW16 8807 W 6 43577 F 09/19-19 55 20 59 36 S 8 3 6605 W 6 32347 P 09/19-20 55 20 56 39 S 7 3 4402 SW 6 21116 P 09/19-21 28 20 53 44 S 7 7 3 3 NW14 2200 SW 5 9885 P 09/19-22 28 0 50 47 SW 7 1 1538 SW 6 7011 P 09/19-23 28 0 48 50 SW 7 1 877 W 6 4137 P 09/20-00 18 0 46 52 SW 7 7 3 1 NW 5 215 W 7 1263 P 09/20-01 18 0 45 53 SW 8 1 214 W 8 1424 P 09/20-02 18 0 44 54 W 9 1 214 W 8 1586 P 09/20-03 18 0 43 55 W 10 10 3 1 W 8 213 W 9 1748 P 09/20-04 18 0 43 55 W 12 1 207 W 10 1852 P 09/20-05 18 0 42 56 W 12 1 201 W 12 1956 P 09/20-06 26 0 43 55 W 13 13 4 1 W 9 196 W 13 2060 P 09/20-07 26 0 44 52 W 13 1 876 W 15 13858 P 09/20-08 26 0 47 47 W 12 1 1556 W 17 25657 P 09/20-09 26 0 52 41 W 12 12 3 1 NW 8 2236 W 20 37455 P 09/20-10 26 0 56 36 W 10 1 4094 W 16 49420 F 09/20-11 26 0 58 34 W 9 1 5953 W 14 61386 G 09/20-12 64 20 60 32 W 9 9 3 3 SW 2 7811 W 10 73351 G 09/20-13 64 20 61 32 W 9 3 8516 W 12 88220 G 09/20-14 64 20 62 32 W 9 3 9220 W 13 103089 V 09/20-15 64 20 62 32 W 10 10 2 3 S 9 9924 W 14 117957 V 09/20-16 64 20 62 33 W 10 3 8966 W 15 115049 V 09/20-17 64 20 60 36 W 10 3 8008 W 16 112140 V 09/20-18 64 20 60 37 W 10 10 3 3 SW13 7050 W 17 109232 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE LARSEN REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20090917.LILYL.02/BOU