FNUS75 KMSO 192147
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE WFU
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
347 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1518 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
IS HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST JUST AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE
FIRE BETWEEN 1700-1900 MDT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ELEVATION AND WEST ASPECT OF THE
FIRE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT (I.E. NOT
DECOUPLE) FROM INSTABILITY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED JET MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
WINDS AGAIN AFTER 0300 MDT 9/20/09.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10 MPH...GUSTS TO 18 MPH
                    THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

TIME (MDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING
                    TO AROUND 6 MPH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS INCREASING
                    AGAIN 6-10 MPH AFTER 0300 AM MDT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...ROCK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090919.LILYL.02/MSO