FNUS75 KMSO 200152
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
752 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1955 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION YOU RECEIVED THIS
EVENING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE
UNIT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OF THE FIRE THROUGH
2100 MDT TAKING THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN UP ON THE TOP
OF THE UNIT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE UNIT IS EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAKER FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE UNIT BETWEEN 0200-0400 MDT WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER BURST OF WINDS MIXING TO THE BOTTOM OF THE
UNIT. SUNDAY THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE UNIT...WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE BOTTOM
OF THE UNIT. ALSO...MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY
AFTER 1200 MDT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44 BOTTOM...49-54 TOP OF UNIT.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT BOTTOM...55-60 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-11 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    TO AROUND 6 MPH AFTER SUNSET AT BOTTOM.
                    WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 30 MPH TOP OF UNIT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BOTTOM VARIABLE TO 6 MPH...BECOMING WEST 8-12 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    TOP...NORTHWEST WINDS 13-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...OLSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090919.LOSTC.01/MSO