FNUS75 KMSO 200057
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR VANDERBURG FIRE...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
656 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1814 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
FIRE THIS HOUR. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FIRE AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PERMA RIDGE JUST OFF
TO YOUR WEST...THE FIRE MAY BE SHELTERED FROM THESE WINDS AND GO
DOWNSLOPE. HOWEVER...YOU COULD SEE SOME CHANNELING OF THE WINDS
DOWN THE VANDERBURG CREEK DRAINAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FIRE AROUND 0300 AM
MDT WHICH MAY MIX THE WINDS UP AGAIN...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS
WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS ENERGY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE TROUGH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD
STAY MORE TERRAIN LOCKED.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH...DECREASING TO 8 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH AFTER 1100 MDT. GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1300 MDT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...BOB MCCREA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090919.VANDE.03/MSO