FNUS75 KRIW 191413
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARTOOTH FACE...WY-SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
813 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0755 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...POSSIBLY MOVING OFF OVER THE BURN SITE. AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEST
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING. COOLER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN IN THE
EVENING BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-9 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    POSSIBLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH AFTER 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 6-12 MPH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    POSSIBLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH AFTER 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (165000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH...
                    DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH AROUND 0300.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (30000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10-15 GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH...INCREASING TO 12-18 MPH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 1300.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (42000-84700 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
.MONDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...WARMER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090919.BEART.01/RIW