FNUS75 KRIW 200042 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARTOOTH RACE RX...IA CDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 642 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CLEARING WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONE MORE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT PASSES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 2100 AND 2200 BUT MAY KICK OUT GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER/DROPPING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MEUNIER .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........SOME CLEARING EARLY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY 2100 TO 2300. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58. MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...OUTFLOWS MOST PROBABLE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH VEERING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LAL.................2 THIS EVENING...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 26 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (15700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66 AROUND NOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON. MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTH 11 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20 TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (32600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (98100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...WARMER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MEUNIER REQUESTED BY...CODY DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090919.BEART.02/RIW