FNUS75 KRIW 191436
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
836 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE TROUGH NEARS...MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DOESN'T APPEAR AT THIS TIME
TO BE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MORE HUMID. A
FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
BRINGING IN COLDER AIR.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (135000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AROUND 2200.              TO 15 MPH. GUST
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75000 KNOT-FT) IN THE EVENING...THEN POOR
                    (22500 KNOT-FT)

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10
                    TO 13 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    12-18 MPH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AROUND 1300.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (95000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. NORTH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...WARMER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...PFISTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090919.LOWER.01/RIW