FNUS75 KBOU 201122 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 521 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING BY NOON...AND THESE WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-72 MIN HUMIDITY........18-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-16 MPH INCREASING TO 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 1300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...QUICKLY INCREASING TO 9600-10600 FT AGL BY 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...DECREASING TO 400-1400 FT AGL BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING FAIR BY 2000 AND POOR BY 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49. MIN HUMIDITY........42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTH 24-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...INCREASING TO 10400-11400 FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/20-04 13 0 48 47 W 8 1 189 W 14 2342 P 09/20-05 13 0 48 48 W 8 1 186 W 14 2275 P 09/20-06 20 10 47 50 W 8 12 3 2 W13 183 W 14 2207 P 09/20-07 28 10 50 45 W 9 2 906 W 18 19496 P 09/20-08 36 10 54 40 W 9 2 1629 W 22 36785 P 09/20-09 42 10 57 35 W 10 15 3 2 W12 2352 W 26 54073 F 09/20-10 48 10 61 31 W 12 2 4829 W 24 92178 G 09/20-11 56 10 64 26 W 13 2 7305 W 22 130283 V 09/20-12 66 30 67 22 W 14 21 3 4 W12 9782 W 20 168388 E 09/20-13 66 30 68 21 W 16 4 10174 W 18 165103 E 09/20-14 66 30 68 24 W 18 4 10566 W 17 161817 E 09/20-15 78 30 68 26 W 20 30 2 4 SW10 10958 W 16 158531 E 09/20-16 78 30 68 27 W 20 4 10203 W 16 147520 V 09/20-17 78 30 67 29 W 18 4 9448 W 16 136509 V 09/20-18 78 20 64 31 W 16 24 2 3 W20 8694 W 16 125498 V 09/20-19 78 20 61 35 W 14 3 6285 W 18 93189 G 09/20-20 78 20 55 42 W 13 3 3875 W 21 60880 G 09/20-21 78 20 51 50 W 10 10 2 3 NW31 1466 W 22 28571 P 09/20-22 78 20 48 55 W 9 3 1097 W 21 20699 P 09/20-23 78 20 45 59 NW 8 3 727 W 18 12827 P 09/21-00 84 45 43 62 NW 8 8 2 1 W20 358 W 16 4954 P 09/21-01 84 45 42 65 NW 9 1 361 NW 16 5204 P 09/21-02 84 45 40 68 NW 12 1 365 NW 17 5454 P 09/21-03 84 45 39 70 NW 14 21 2 1 W35 368 NW 17 5703 P 09/21-04 84 45 37 72 NW 15 1 367 NW 16 5228 P 09/21-05 84 45 36 74 NW 15 1 366 NW 15 4753 P 09/21-06 63 50 36 75 NW 15 23 2 1 W41 365 NW 14 4278 P 09/21-07 63 50 42 58 N 13 1 3099 NW 14 39296 P 09/21-08 63 50 41 59 N 12 1 4243 NW 15 58598 F 09/21-09 63 50 43 53 N 10 10 2 1 W31 5387 NW 16 77901 G 09/21-10 63 50 46 48 N 12 1 6429 NW 20 116750 V 09/21-11 63 50 47 46 NW 14 1 7472 NW 23 155599 E 09/21-12 67 30 48 45 NW 16 25 2 1 W23 8514 NW 26 194448 E 09/21-13 67 30 48 44 NW 17 1 9483 NW 25 212497 E 09/21-14 67 30 49 43 NW 17 1 10451 N 25 230546 E 09/21-15 67 30 49 42 NW 17 28 2 1 NW22 11420 N 25 248594 E 09/21-16 67 30 48 42 NW 17 1 10938 N 26 251502 E 09/21-17 67 30 47 44 NW 16 1 10456 N 28 254410 E 09/21-18 68 20 47 46 NW 15 24 2 1 N33 9974 N 30 257318 E 09/21-19 68 20 44 52 NW 14 1 8908 N 30 234395 E 09/21-20 68 20 41 59 NW 13 1 7842 N 31 211471 E 09/21-21 68 20 40 64 NW 12 12 2 1 N32 6777 N 32 188548 E 09/21-22 68 20 39 68 NW 12 1 6068 N 30 160595 E 09/21-23 68 20 38 72 NW 10 1 5360 N 28 132642 V 09/22-00 68 20 36 75 NW 10 10 2 1 N29 4652 N 26 104690 V 09/22-01 68 20 35 78 W 10 1 4041 N 23 84789 G 09/22-02 68 20 34 80 W 9 1 3430 N 21 64889 G 09/22-03 68 20 33 81 W 9 9 2 1 NE25 2819 N 18 44988 F 09/22-04 68 20 32 80 W 9 1 2647 NW 18 41312 F 09/22-05 68 20 32 77 W 9 1 2476 NW 17 37635 P 09/22-06 57 29 32 72 W 9 9 2 1 N30 2305 NW 17 33958 P 09/22-07 57 29 33 64 NW 10 1 3480 N 20 63738 G 09/22-08 57 29 38 49 NW 13 1 4655 N 22 93518 G 09/22-09 57 29 44 37 NW 14 22 2 1 NE43 5831 N 24 123299 V 09/22-10 57 29 49 28 NW 14 1 6821 N 24 141744 V 09/22-11 57 29 52 25 N 14 1 7812 N 24 160189 E 09/22-12 57 29 54 23 N 14 22 3 1 NE39 8802 N 23 178635 E 09/22-13 57 29 56 23 N 14 1 8966 N 24 183928 E 09/22-14 57 29 57 24 N 13 1 9130 N 24 189222 E 09/22-15 57 29 57 27 N 13 13 3 1 NE37 9294 N 24 194515 E 09/22-16 57 29 57 30 N 13 1 8884 N 25 193961 E 09/22-17 57 29 55 34 N 12 1 8474 N 26 193407 E 09/22-18 59 29 55 37 N 12 12 2 1 NE53 8064 N 28 192853 E 09/22-19 59 29 51 43 N 12 1 6968 N 26 163628 E 09/22-20 59 29 47 50 N 10 1 5871 N 26 134404 V 09/22-21 59 29 45 54 N 10 10 2 1 NE55 4775 N 25 105179 V 09/22-22 59 29 43 58 N 10 1 3412 N 22 73401 G 09/22-23 59 29 42 62 NW 10 1 2049 N 20 41623 F 09/23-00 59 29 39 67 NW 10 10 2 1 NE52 686 N 16 9844 P 09/23-01 59 29 38 71 NW 9 1 547 N 15 7474 P 09/23-02 59 29 36 74 NW 9 1 408 N 14 5104 P 09/23-03 59 29 35 76 NW 9 9 2 1 NE55 270 N 12 2733 P 09/23-04 59 29 35 76 NW 9 1 257 N 12 2519 P 09/23-05 59 29 34 74 NW 8 1 244 N 10 2305 P 09/23-06 59 20 34 74 NW 8 8 2 1 NE54 232 N 10 2091 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAMES WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090920.SHEEP.01/BOU