FNUS75 KBOU 211216 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 605 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-44 MIN HUMIDITY........43-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 12-21 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 24-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8800-9800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100... THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29. MAX HUMIDITY........61-67%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 3000-3400 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0300...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 8800-9800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1800... THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/21-06 100 73 34 81 NW 13 20 2 1 W36 2898 N 13 33219 P 09/21-07 100 73 35 79 NW 15 1 3980 N 16 62482 G 09/21-08 100 73 35 77 NW 17 1 5063 N 20 91746 G 09/21-09 100 73 36 75 NW 17 26 2 1 W25 6145 N 23 121009 V 09/21-10 100 73 37 71 NW 18 1 7072 N 24 147301 V 09/21-11 100 73 38 68 NW 18 1 7998 N 24 173593 E 09/21-12 83 43 39 65 NW 18 28 2 1 NW17 8925 N 25 199884 E 09/21-13 83 43 40 63 NW 18 1 9332 N 25 201276 E 09/21-14 83 43 41 61 NW 17 1 9739 N 24 202668 E 09/21-15 82 43 40 63 N 17 26 2 1 N23 10147 N 23 204059 E 09/21-16 82 43 39 63 N 17 1 9813 N 24 208610 E 09/21-17 82 43 38 65 NW 17 1 9479 N 26 213161 E 09/21-18 82 30 37 66 NW 16 24 2 1 N28 9145 N 28 217712 E 09/21-19 82 30 36 69 NW 14 1 10502 N 29 263200 E 09/21-20 82 30 35 72 NW 12 1 8873 N 29 222467 E 09/21-21 81 30 33 74 NW 9 9 2 1 N28 7244 N 29 181735 E 09/21-22 81 30 33 74 NW 8 1 6318 N 28 153774 E 09/21-23 81 30 32 74 NW 7 1 5392 N 26 125814 V 09/22-00 80 22 32 74 NW 7 7 2 1 N28 4466 N 25 97853 G 09/22-01 80 22 31 73 NW 6 1 4090 N 24 86229 G 09/22-02 80 22 31 73 W 6 1 3715 N 23 74604 G 09/22-03 80 22 31 72 W 6 6 2 1 N29 3339 N 22 62980 G 09/22-04 80 22 31 70 W 7 1 3198 N 21 58756 F 09/22-05 80 22 30 69 W 8 1 3057 N 21 54532 F 09/22-06 55 40 30 69 W 9 9 2 1 NE37 2916 NW 20 50309 F 09/22-07 55 40 31 71 NW 10 1 4000 N 21 76023 G 09/22-08 55 40 35 65 NW 13 1 5084 N 23 101737 V 09/22-09 55 40 39 57 NW 14 14 2 1 NE43 6168 N 24 127452 V 09/22-10 55 40 43 50 NW 14 1 7359 N 24 150930 E 09/22-11 55 40 44 47 N 14 1 8549 N 23 174409 E 09/22-12 72 40 46 43 N 14 14 2 1 NE41 9739 N 23 197888 E 09/22-13 72 40 47 42 N 14 1 9817 N 23 192726 E 09/22-14 72 40 48 41 N 13 1 9895 N 22 187564 E 09/22-15 72 40 48 41 N 13 13 3 1 NE35 9973 N 21 182403 E 09/22-16 72 40 48 42 N 13 1 9305 N 22 175615 E 09/22-17 72 40 47 45 N 12 1 8636 N 23 168827 E 09/22-18 76 60 47 46 N 12 12 3 1 NE40 7968 N 23 162039 E 09/22-19 76 60 44 50 N 12 1 6727 N 25 143246 V 09/22-20 76 60 41 54 N 10 1 5487 N 26 124454 V 09/22-21 76 60 40 55 N 10 10 3 1 NE45 4247 N 29 105661 V 09/22-22 76 60 39 56 N 10 1 3359 N 26 80845 G 09/22-23 76 60 38 57 NW 10 1 2471 N 24 56028 F 09/23-00 75 60 36 60 NW 10 10 2 1 NE53 1583 N 23 31212 P 09/23-01 75 60 35 62 NW 10 1 1260 N 21 24074 P 09/23-02 75 60 34 65 N 10 1 936 N 20 16935 P 09/23-03 75 60 33 68 N 10 10 2 1 NE54 613 N 18 9797 P 09/23-04 75 60 33 69 N 10 1 598 N 18 9645 P 09/23-05 75 60 32 69 N 9 1 584 N 18 9493 P 09/23-06 82 60 32 70 N 9 9 2 1 NE59 570 N 18 9341 P 09/23-07 82 60 33 71 N 9 1 1895 N 23 45812 F 09/23-08 82 60 36 68 N 9 1 3220 N 26 82283 G 09/23-09 82 60 39 63 N 9 9 2 1 NE58 4544 N 30 118754 V 09/23-10 82 60 43 58 N 9 1 5430 NE 30 144092 V 09/23-11 82 60 44 56 NE 9 1 6316 NE 31 169430 E 09/23-12 87 60 46 54 NE 9 9 2 1 NE55 7202 NE 31 194768 E 09/23-13 87 60 47 53 NE 8 1 7658 NE 31 204365 E 09/23-14 87 60 47 52 NE 8 1 8113 NE 30 213962 E 09/23-15 87 60 48 51 NE 7 7 2 1 NE52 8568 NE 30 223560 E 09/23-16 87 60 48 52 E 6 1 8212 NE 29 206838 E 09/23-17 87 60 47 54 E 5 1 7857 NE 28 190116 E 09/23-18 66 40 47 54 E 5 5 2 1 NE54 7501 NE 26 173394 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAMES WHITE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090921.SHEEP.01/BOU