FNUS75 KRIW 231018
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CROOKED CREEK RX...BLM WOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
418 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FIRE SITE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BETWEEN A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH THE SMOKE DISPERSAL
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE FAIR. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 1500.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD (60000
                    KNOT-FT) BY AROUND 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 15
                    MPH FROM THE EAST.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800-19800 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO FAIR (48300
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL EXPECTED. CLEAR. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ANDY ROTHLEUTNER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090923.CROOK.01/RIW