FNUS75 KRIW 301402
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKEN CREEK RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
802 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A STRONG
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL CONVERT TO SNOWFALL
LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 PM
THIS MORNING. STRONGER WIND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER WIND WILL WEAKEN
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE BURN SITE BY THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED
WIND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE FIRE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASED TO ISOLATED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-47 BELOW 8700 FT...40-44 ABOVE 8700 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200. GUSTS UP
                    TO 30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY
                    1200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.91 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AT 25 TO 30 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (126100 KNOT-FT) BY
                    1300.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-26 BELOW 8700...20-23 ABOVE 8700 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 28 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.33 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40600-54900 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) AFTER 1300. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-41 BELOW 8700 FT...35-38 ABOVE 8700 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (56200-88400 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 11 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...COLDER. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...HUTTA
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090924.CHICK.02/RIW