FNUS73 KAPX 251601 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES UNIT 8 9...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1201 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHALLOW COOL AIR SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS RESULTED IN A LOW CLOUD DECK EXPANDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (INCLUDING THE BURN SITE) THIS MORNING. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP CONDITIONS TO THE BURN SITE FOR IGNITION. STRATUS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND THIN. BUT GIVEN A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER LATE SEPT SUN IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS PROCESS CAN GET GOING IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ACCORDINGLY BE SLOW TO RESPOND BUT WILL EVENTUALLY END UP IN THE UPPER 60S PARTICULARLY WHEN WE GET SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) AFTER 3 PM. TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING EAST 8 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 14 TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........89 86 84 78 66 60 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............62 64 65 68 67 65 RH..............62 56 52 45 47 48 20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......800 800 800 800 800 700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........63 73 73 73 95 95 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 59 54 51 49 47 RH..............52 57 66 77 86 93 20 FT WIND......E 7 E 6 E 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 SMOKE DISP......500 200 100 100 100 100 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64. RH..................MIN 70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............47 47 54 60 63 63 RH..............93 100 83 72 70 75 20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090925.BLUEB.02/APX