FNUS75 KRIW 261100 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW BAY...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 458 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2208 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BREEZY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE SITE TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE CHANNELED OUT OF LEIGH CANYON TOWARD THE FIRE SITE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200...INCREASING TO 12-20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 1500...SWITCHING TO MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (128700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40. MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING...DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH AROUND 2100 BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 0300. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH...DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (72900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (11800 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-76. MIN HUMIDITY........13-16 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH BY 1200 WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 12-18 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (91500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS... SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...COLLINS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090925.BEARP.01/RIW