FNUS75 KRIW 270942 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW BAY...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 342 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2133 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE WINDS ALOFT SWITCHING FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST (UPVALLEY)...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 1600...AS MIXING ALLOWS THE WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MIX DOWN QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT NORTH EARLY...THEN VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AROUND 1200 THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 1600. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (23000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (90600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 40 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH BY 2000. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL BY 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16300 KNOT-FT). .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 2-4 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BY NOON. GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (96200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS... SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...CHIP COLLINS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090926.BEARP.01/RIW