FNUS75 KBOU 271846 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1232 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1500 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THEY MAY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE WEAK UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST 3-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600-8600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33. MAX HUMIDITY........53-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTH 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 800-1800 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-69. MIN HUMIDITY........18-21%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 4200-5200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/27-12 6 0 70 13 W 16 25 4 1 NW47 6083 W 36 188411 E 09/27-13 6 0 71 14 W 15 1 6922 W 33 201457 E 09/27-14 6 0 71 14 NW 13 1 7761 W 32 214502 E 09/27-15 6 0 72 16 NW 12 12 3 1 W53 8600 W 30 227547 E 09/27-16 6 0 71 16 NW 10 1 8556 W 28 208012 E 09/27-17 6 0 69 18 NW 10 1 8511 W 25 188476 E 09/27-18 6 0 67 18 NW 9 9 2 1 NW51 8467 W 23 168941 E 09/27-19 6 0 60 23 N 7 1 6358 W 16 113491 V 09/27-20 6 0 54 29 E 6 1 4249 SW 8 58041 F 09/27-21 6 0 51 33 SE 5 5 2 1 NW49 2140 CALM 2591 P 09/27-22 6 0 48 37 SE 3 1 1748 S 3 3805 P 09/27-23 6 0 46 42 S 5 1 1355 S 6 5020 P 09/28-00 12 0 42 42 S 6 6 2 1 NW43 962 S 7 6234 P 09/28-01 12 0 40 44 S 6 1 891 S 8 6049 P 09/28-02 12 0 38 46 S 7 1 819 S 8 5863 P 09/28-03 12 0 36 48 S 7 7 3 1 NW36 747 S 9 5678 P 09/28-04 12 0 35 49 S 7 1 662 S 8 4583 P 09/28-05 12 0 35 50 S 6 1 577 S 7 3488 P 09/28-06 12 0 34 57 S 6 6 4 1 NW32 455 S 6 2457 P 09/28-07 12 0 37 52 S 6 1 866 S 6 4231 P 09/28-08 12 0 42 42 S 6 1 1277 SW 6 6005 P 09/28-09 12 0 50 31 S 7 7 4 1 NW23 1687 SW 6 7779 P 09/28-10 12 0 58 23 S 7 1 2663 SW 7 17444 P 09/28-11 12 0 62 21 SE 7 1 3639 W 8 27109 P 09/28-12 19 0 65 19 SE 7 7 5 1 W22 4615 W 9 36774 P 09/28-13 19 0 66 19 SE 8 1 4948 W 9 38829 P 09/28-14 19 0 67 19 SE 8 1 5282 W 9 40884 F 09/28-15 19 0 69 19 SE 9 9 4 1 W23 5615 W 9 42939 F 09/28-16 19 0 68 21 SE 9 1 4701 SW 9 36225 P 09/28-17 19 0 66 23 SE 9 1 3787 SW 9 29512 P 09/28-18 19 0 65 24 SE 9 9 4 1 W20 2873 SW 9 22799 P 09/28-19 19 0 59 28 S 8 1 2203 S 9 17571 P 09/28-20 19 0 54 34 S 7 1 1532 S 9 12342 P 09/28-21 19 0 52 37 S 6 6 4 1 W25 862 S 9 7113 P 09/28-22 19 0 50 41 S 7 1 615 S 9 5005 P 09/28-23 19 0 48 44 SW 7 1 368 SW 8 2897 P 09/29-00 24 0 45 48 SW 7 7 4 1 W23 121 SW 7 789 P 09/29-01 24 0 44 48 SW 7 1 107 SW 8 747 P 09/29-02 24 0 42 50 SW 8 1 93 SW 9 705 P 09/29-03 24 0 41 49 SW 8 8 4 1 W17 79 SW 9 664 P 09/29-04 24 0 40 48 SW 9 1 78 SW 10 722 P 09/29-05 24 0 39 48 SW 10 1 77 SW 12 781 P 09/29-06 24 0 39 47 SW 12 12 4 1 W14 76 SW 13 840 P 09/29-07 24 0 41 45 SW 13 1 111 SW 14 1372 P 09/29-08 24 0 46 37 SW 13 1 145 SW 15 1904 P 09/29-09 24 0 54 29 SW 14 22 4 1 W15 180 SW 16 2436 P 09/29-10 24 0 60 23 SW 14 1 2055 W 17 36041 P 09/29-11 24 0 64 22 SW 15 1 3930 W 18 69645 G 09/29-12 38 0 67 19 SW 15 24 4 1 W20 5805 W 21 103250 V 09/29-13 38 0 68 19 SW 15 1 7718 W 20 130728 V 09/29-14 38 0 69 18 SW 14 1 9631 W 20 158207 E 09/29-15 38 0 70 17 SW 13 13 4 1 W20 11544 W 18 185685 E 09/29-16 38 0 69 18 SW 13 1 9357 W 18 151450 E 09/29-17 38 0 67 20 SW 12 1 7169 W 18 117214 V 09/29-18 38 0 66 20 SW 10 10 3 1 SW16 4982 W 20 82978 G 09/29-19 38 0 60 26 SW 10 1 3390 W 17 56132 F 09/29-20 38 0 56 32 SW 10 1 1798 SW 15 29285 P 09/29-21 38 0 53 37 SW 10 10 4 1 S21 205 SW 14 2439 P 09/29-22 38 0 51 41 SW 10 1 180 SW 14 2137 P 09/29-23 38 0 49 42 SW 10 1 154 SW 14 1835 P 09/30-00 57 0 47 47 SW 10 10 4 1 SW18 128 SW 14 1534 P 09/30-01 57 0 45 50 SW 10 1 119 SW 14 1392 P 09/30-02 57 0 43 54 SW 10 1 110 SW 13 1251 P 09/30-03 57 0 42 56 SW 10 10 4 1 SW18 101 SW 13 1110 P 09/30-04 57 0 41 57 SW 10 1 96 SW 13 1027 P 09/30-05 57 0 41 57 SW 9 1 92 SW 12 944 P 09/30-06 57 0 40 57 SW 9 9 2 1 SW21 87 SW 12 861 P 09/30-07 57 0 42 54 SW 10 1 09/30-08 57 0 45 49 SW 13 1 09/30-09 57 0 51 38 SW 14 22 1 09/30-10 57 0 56 30 SW 15 1 09/30-11 57 0 58 25 SW 17 1 09/30-12 57 21 60 23 SW 18 30 09/30-13 57 21 61 22 SW 17 09/30-14 57 21 62 22 SW 16 09/30-15 57 21 63 22 SW 16 25 09/30-16 57 21 62 23 SW 15 09/30-17 57 21 60 25 SW 14 09/30-18 57 21 59 29 SW 13 13 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090927.SHEEP.03/BOU