FNUS75 KRIW 272129
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARNICA FIRE...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
329 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1512 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FIRE THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HUMIDITY IN
THE LOW TEENS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE. AS THIS
SYSTEM ADVANCES FURTHER EAST OVER WYOMING....IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOWFALL
DUE TO DIPPING TEMPERATURES. ALL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SNOWFALL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER
                    1600.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (94100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-30.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-66 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH
                    BY 2200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    BY 2200...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    BY 0200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (11400-47500 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    BY 1600.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD (87200 KNOT-FT) BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE EVENING. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER. NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...ED FOLTS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090927.ARNIC.01/RIW