FNUS75 KRIW 281250 CCA
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR PAW BAY...USFS BTF...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
455 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TODAY LEADING TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES. THE VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-9 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH AFTER
                    NOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (117000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-48 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNVALLEY...
                    NORTH TO NORTHEAST...4-8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...CORRECTED DIRECTION
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (68000 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR
                    (27500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (46000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (250000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER. CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...COLLINS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090927.BEARP.01/RIW