FNUS75 KRIW 272103
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKEN CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
303 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1510 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BURN SITE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...THOUGH WIND WILL BE DECREASED COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN
SITE MONDAY AFTERNOON HELPING WIND TO BECOME SOUTHWEST. PASSAGE OF
THE AXIS AIDED BY THE PUSH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE BURN SITE ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER INTO WYOMING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-71 BELOW 8600 FT...65-67 ABOVE 8600 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........3-7 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH
                    BY 1600. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18-25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (119400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-37 BELOW 8600 FT...30-24 ABOVE 8600 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-52 PERCENT BELOW 8600 FT...52-56 ABOVE
                    8600 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH BY 0100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (16700-60000 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70 BELOW 8600 FT...62-66 ABOVE 8600 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    8 TO 12 MPH BY 1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    BY 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2100-3100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    14 TO 18 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (12600-44200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...COLLINS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090927.CHICK.02/RIW