FNUS75 KRIW 271334
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
734 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0735 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW AND AN ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON...
POTENTIALLY BRINGING GUSTY WEST WIND OVER THE BURN SITE. WIND OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ELEVATED WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE BURN
SITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WILL SPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER THE BURN SITE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62 BELOW 8500 FT...55-58 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 BELOW 8500 FT...18-21 PERCENT ABOVE
                    8500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 12 TO 16
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH
                    AFTER 1300.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH
                    BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (101200 KNOT-FT) BY
                    1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-39 BELOW 8500 FT...32-35 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-35 PERCENT BELOW 8500 FT...36-40 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 8500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2200...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH BY 0200 BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 0400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY 0400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 15
                    TO 20 MPH BY 0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (17200-55600 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-65 BELOW 8500 FT...57-61 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT BELOW 8500 FT...18-22 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 8500 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH BY 1000. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH EAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BY 1300.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    17 TO 22 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (111000 KNOT-FT) BY
                    1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 11 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...MACK
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090927.LOWER.01/RIW