FNUS75 KBOU 281155 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 530 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND AN INVERSION A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY IN THE FAIR CATEGORY DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK BUT DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 0900... THEN SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 5000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700... THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38. MAX HUMIDITY........48-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 8-10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 0-600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-73. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH BECOMING WEST 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 7000 FT AGL BY 1300 AND 11000 FT AGL BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 1800... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/28-04 3 0 32 62 S 5 1 278 S 6 1766 P 09/28-05 3 0 35 50 S 7 1 402 S 8 3059 P 09/28-06 2 0 34 50 S 6 6 4 1 NW39 525 S 9 4353 P 09/28-07 2 0 37 45 S 6 1 892 S 8 5519 P 09/28-08 4 0 42 37 S 6 1 1259 S 7 6686 P 09/28-09 4 0 50 28 S 6 6 4 1 NW30 1626 SW 6 7852 P 09/28-10 4 0 57 21 SE 7 1 2422 SW 5 10343 P 09/28-11 4 0 60 19 SE 8 1 3219 SW 5 12834 P 09/28-12 4 0 64 17 SE 9 9 4 1 NW18 4016 W 5 15324 P 09/28-13 4 0 65 17 SE 9 1 4518 SW 6 22688 P 09/28-14 9 0 66 17 SE 10 1 5021 SW 7 30051 P 09/28-15 9 0 68 17 SE 10 10 5 1 W21 5523 SW 8 37415 P 09/28-16 9 0 67 19 SE 10 1 4569 SW 8 31901 P 09/28-17 9 0 65 21 SE 10 1 3615 SW 8 26387 P 09/28-18 9 0 64 22 SE 9 9 4 1 W28 2661 SW 9 20873 P 09/28-19 9 0 58 26 S 8 1 1951 SW 9 15265 P 09/28-20 9 0 54 31 S 7 1 1241 S 9 9658 P 09/28-21 9 0 51 33 S 6 6 4 1 SW25 530 S 9 4050 P 09/28-22 9 0 49 37 S 7 1 393 S 8 2965 P 09/28-23 9 0 47 40 SW 7 1 256 SW 8 1880 P 09/29-00 24 0 44 45 SW 7 7 4 1 SW25 118 SW 8 795 P 09/29-01 24 0 43 46 SW 7 1 105 SW 8 747 P 09/29-02 24 0 41 47 SW 8 1 92 SW 9 698 P 09/29-03 24 0 40 46 SW 8 8 4 1 SW22 79 SW 9 649 P 09/29-04 24 0 39 45 SW 9 1 78 SW 10 680 P 09/29-05 24 0 39 45 SW 10 1 77 SW 10 711 P 09/29-06 24 0 38 49 SW 10 10 4 1 W22 73 SW 12 695 P 09/29-07 24 0 40 46 SW 10 1 109 SW 12 1053 P 09/29-08 24 0 46 38 SW 10 1 144 SW 12 1411 P 09/29-09 24 0 53 30 SW 9 9 4 1 W18 180 SW 12 1769 P 09/29-10 24 0 60 23 SW 10 1 2392 SW 14 39427 P 09/29-11 24 0 64 22 SW 12 1 4605 W 16 77084 G 09/29-12 24 0 67 19 W 12 12 4 1 W21 6817 W 20 114742 V 09/29-13 24 0 68 19 W 12 1 8465 W 20 142776 V 09/29-14 24 0 69 17 W 12 1 10113 W 20 170811 E 09/29-15 32 0 70 17 W 10 10 4 1 W21 11762 W 20 198846 E 09/29-16 32 0 69 18 W 12 1 9929 W 20 168636 E 09/29-17 32 0 68 20 W 12 1 8096 W 20 138426 V 09/29-18 32 0 66 20 W 10 10 3 1 SW22 6264 W 20 108216 V 09/29-19 32 0 61 26 W 9 1 4240 W 16 72651 G 09/29-20 32 0 56 31 SW 8 1 2217 SW 13 37087 P 09/29-21 32 0 54 36 SW 7 7 3 1 SW20 194 SW 9 1523 P 09/29-22 32 0 52 40 SW 8 1 173 SW 10 1527 P 09/29-23 32 0 50 41 SW 9 1 152 SW 12 1532 P 09/30-00 32 0 47 46 SW 12 12 4 1 SW25 131 SW 14 1536 P 09/30-01 32 0 46 49 SW 12 1 120 SW 14 1424 P 09/30-02 46 0 44 52 SW 12 1 110 SW 14 1312 P 09/30-03 46 0 43 54 SW 12 12 4 1 S20 100 SW 14 1200 P 09/30-04 46 0 42 55 SW 12 1 97 SW 14 1146 P 09/30-05 46 0 42 55 SW 12 1 93 SW 14 1093 P 09/30-06 46 0 41 55 SW 12 12 3 1 SW28 89 SW 14 1039 P 09/30-07 46 0 43 52 SW 13 1 128 SW 15 1725 P 09/30-08 46 0 46 47 SW 13 1 166 SW 16 2411 P 09/30-09 46 0 52 36 SW 14 14 2 1 SW48 205 SW 17 3097 P 09/30-10 46 0 57 29 SW 15 1 2027 SW 23 60864 G 09/30-11 46 0 59 24 SW 16 1 3848 SW 30 118632 V 09/30-12 66 10 61 22 SW 18 18 2 2 SW49 5670 SW 36 176399 E 09/30-13 66 10 63 21 SW 17 2 5969 SW 36 184787 E 09/30-14 66 10 63 22 SW 16 2 6268 SW 36 193175 E 09/30-15 66 10 64 21 SW 16 16 2 2 SW58 6567 SW 36 201563 E 09/30-16 66 10 63 22 SW 15 2 6190 SW 35 187461 E 09/30-17 66 10 61 24 SW 15 2 5814 SW 35 173359 E 09/30-18 66 10 60 28 SW 15 15 2 2 SW51 5438 SW 33 159256 E 09/30-19 66 10 54 33 SW 15 2 3686 SW 29 107087 V 09/30-20 66 10 50 40 SW 14 2 1935 SW 23 54918 F 09/30-21 66 10 47 43 SW 15 15 2 2 S38 183 SW 17 2749 P 09/30-22 66 30 45 47 W 15 1 180 W 18 2866 P 09/30-23 76 30 43 49 W 16 1 177 W 20 2983 P 10/01-00 76 30 41 54 W 16 16 4 1 SW58 174 W 21 3101 P 10/01-01 76 30 39 59 W 16 1 241 W 22 4566 P 10/01-02 76 30 37 61 W 16 1 307 W 22 6031 P 10/01-03 76 30 36 64 W 15 15 2 1 SW53 374 W 23 7496 P 10/01-04 76 30 35 67 W 14 1 777 W 26 19872 P 10/01-05 76 30 35 67 W 14 1 1180 W 29 32248 P 10/01-06 76 30 34 68 W 13 13 2 1 SW40 1582 W 32 44625 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...DAVID HAMRICK REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090928.SHEEP.01/BOU