FNUS75 KRIW 291145 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BRADLEY MOUNTAIN...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 545 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2025 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES AND EXPOSED LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BURN AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST. A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINS EXISTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THOSE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...SKRBAC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82 LOWEST ELEVATIONS...65-69 UPPER ELEVATIONS MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 0900 TO 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (240000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-42. MAX HUMIDITY........84-87 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING AT 10 TO 16 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (88300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (37200 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-46 LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 34-38 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40300-54900 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SKRBAC REQUESTED BY...DWAYNE GIBBONS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090928.BRADL.01/RIW