FNUS75 KRIW 281330
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKEN CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
730 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0720 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES. THE VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC/SMITH

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (101200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20000-27400 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (242700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS
AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC/SMITH
REQUESTED BY...MACK
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090928.CHICK.01/RIW