FNUS75 KRIW 301158 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BRADLEY MOUNTAIN...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 558 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2035 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...A COLD LATE SEPTEMBER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BURN PROJECT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AND END OVERNIGHT WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...SKRBAC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS EARLY...OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-46 VALLEY FLOOR EARLY THEN DROPPING INTO THE 30S. 33-36 UPPER ELEVATIONS. MIN HUMIDITY........56-59 PERCENT...EARLY THEN HIGHER. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING WEST AT 12 TO 22 MPH BY LATE MORNING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.100 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AT 22 TO 27 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING GOOD LATE (36800-75000 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-26 LOWER ELEVATIONS...16-19 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.67 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (40000-65000 KNOT-FT). .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-47 LOWER ELEVATIONS...34-38 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIN HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 23 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (35000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (95000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SKRBAC REQUESTED BY...DWAYNE GIBBONS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090929.BRADL.01/RIW