FNUS75 KBOU 302208 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TIMBER CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 408 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 4-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 1200. SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....37. MIN HUMIDITY........46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....13. MAX HUMIDITY........99%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 800-1800 FT AGL AFTER 0100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TIMBER CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/30-15 89 60 51 30 SW 30 48 2 5 SW62 7826 SW 52 351876 E 09/30-16 89 60 50 32 SW 30 5 8093 SW 49 347261 E 09/30-17 89 60 49 36 SW 29 5 8360 SW 47 342646 E 09/30-18 87 60 49 38 SW 24 39 2 3 SW76 8628 SW 45 338031 E 09/30-19 87 60 43 44 W 20 3 7711 SW 41 281487 E 09/30-20 87 60 39 50 W 16 3 6794 W 37 224943 E 09/30-21 87 60 37 52 W 14 22 2 1 SW68 5877 W 33 168399 E 09/30-22 87 60 35 55 W 13 1 5550 W 31 152770 E 09/30-23 87 60 33 57 W 14 1 5223 W 30 137141 V 10/01-00 100 80 31 62 W 15 24 2 1 W60 4895 W 29 121512 V 10/01-01 100 80 29 66 W 17 1 4827 W 31 130708 V 10/01-02 100 80 28 70 W 20 1 4758 W 33 139904 V 10/01-03 100 80 27 74 W 21 33 2 1 W45 4690 W 37 149100 V 10/01-04 100 80 26 77 W 20 1 4654 W 37 147105 V 10/01-05 100 80 25 78 W 18 1 4618 W 36 145110 V 10/01-06 100 80 25 79 W 16 25 2 1 NW30 4583 W 36 143115 V 10/01-07 100 80 27 72 W 18 1 5262 W 35 153062 E 10/01-08 100 80 27 70 W 17 1 5942 NW 32 163008 E 10/01-09 100 80 30 61 W 17 28 2 1 NW28 6621 NW 30 172954 E 10/01-10 100 80 33 54 W 16 1 7463 NW 29 185838 E 10/01-11 100 80 34 50 W 15 1 8305 NW 28 198723 E 10/01-12 77 58 35 48 W 15 24 2 1 NW25 9147 NW 26 211607 E 10/01-13 77 58 36 47 W 16 1 9201 NW 28 220199 E 10/01-14 77 58 36 46 W 17 1 9255 W 29 228790 E 10/01-15 77 45 36 46 W 18 30 2 1 W37 9309 W 30 237382 E 10/01-16 77 45 36 46 W 18 1 8818 W 31 240268 E 10/01-17 77 45 35 48 W 17 1 8328 W 33 243155 E 10/01-18 58 21 33 50 W 16 25 2 1 NW59 7837 W 36 246041 E 10/01-19 58 21 29 57 W 15 1 6753 W 33 202917 E 10/01-20 58 21 25 64 W 13 1 5669 NW 31 159793 E 10/01-21 58 10 24 69 W 12 12 2 1 NW64 4585 NW 29 116669 V 10/01-22 58 10 22 75 W 12 1 3897 W 29 96973 G 10/01-23 58 10 21 81 W 10 1 3209 W 28 77277 G 10/02-00 58 10 19 90 W 10 10 2 1 NW66 2521 W 26 57581 F 10/02-01 58 10 17 95 W 10 1 1990 W 24 43678 F 10/02-02 58 10 16 97 W 12 1 1460 W 22 29775 P 10/02-03 15 0 15 98 W 12 12 2 1 NW62 930 W 20 15872 P 10/02-04 15 0 15 99 W 12 1 809 W 18 13395 P 10/02-05 15 0 14 98 W 10 1 689 W 18 10918 P 10/02-06 15 0 14 99 W 10 10 2 1 NW62 569 W 17 8442 P 10/02-07 15 0 15 94 W 10 1 1171 W 20 21794 P 10/02-08 15 0 21 77 W 10 1 1773 W 22 35147 P 10/02-09 15 0 27 60 W 12 12 3 1 NW59 2375 W 23 48499 F 10/02-10 15 0 33 46 W 13 1 3339 W 24 71520 G 10/02-11 15 0 36 41 W 13 1 4303 NW 25 94540 G 10/02-12 15 0 38 36 W 14 22 2 1 NW51 5268 NW 25 117561 V 10/02-13 15 0 40 34 W 13 1 5402 NW 24 115026 V 10/02-14 15 0 40 33 W 13 1 5537 NW 23 112491 V 10/02-15 15 0 41 32 W 12 12 3 1 NW45 5671 NW 22 109956 V 10/02-16 15 0 41 33 W 9 1 5383 NW 21 96991 G 10/02-17 15 0 40 35 W 7 1 5094 NW 18 84026 G 10/02-18 15 0 39 37 W 5 5 3 1 NW43 4806 W 17 71061 G 10/02-19 15 0 36 46 W 3 1 3511 W 13 48645 F 10/02-20 15 0 33 52 S 3 1 2217 W 9 26230 P 10/02-21 15 0 31 54 SE 2 2 3 1 NW37 922 SW 5 3814 P 10/02-22 15 0 30 56 S 2 1 712 SW 5 2975 P 10/02-23 15 0 29 56 S 3 1 503 S 5 2135 P 10/03-00 15 0 28 58 S 3 3 3 1 W30 294 S 5 1296 P 10/03-01 15 0 27 59 S 3 1 264 S 5 1180 P 10/03-02 15 0 26 60 S 3 1 234 SW 6 1065 P 10/03-03 15 0 25 60 S 3 3 3 1 W31 205 SW 6 949 P 10/03-04 15 0 24 61 S 3 1 197 SW 6 895 P 10/03-05 15 0 24 62 S 3 1 190 SW 5 840 P 10/03-06 37 0 24 63 S 3 3 2 1 W37 183 SW 5 786 P 10/03-07 37 0 25 62 S 3 1 748 SW 7 6149 P 10/03-08 37 0 30 52 S 5 1 1313 SW 8 11512 P 10/03-09 37 0 36 42 SW 5 5 2 1 W31 1878 W 10 16876 P 10/03-10 37 0 42 34 SW 6 1 3123 W 13 39191 P 10/03-11 37 0 44 31 SW 7 1 4369 W 15 61507 G 10/03-12 58 0 46 29 SW 8 8 2 1 W29 5614 W 17 83823 G 10/03-13 58 0 48 28 SW 9 1 6125 W 17 92664 G 10/03-14 58 0 48 27 SW 9 1 6637 SW 17 101505 V 10/03-15 58 0 49 27 SW 10 10 2 1 SW26 7148 SW 17 110346 V 10/03-16 58 0 48 28 SW 8 1 6882 SW 17 103068 V 10/03-17 58 0 47 30 SW 6 1 6617 SW 16 95789 G 10/03-18 58 0 46 32 S 3 3 2 1 SW31 6352 SW 16 88510 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090930.TIMBE.01/BOU