FNUS72 KMLB 301020
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP E1...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER UNCERTAIN FORECAST TODAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STALL SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY TODAY. SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA ARE FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY AND
THE BURN SITE...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND WOULD LEAD TO A REVISED FORECAST TO
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY AND WOULD
ADVISE THAT YOU DO AS WELL.

ALSO...THE WIND FORECAST WILL ALSO BE TRICKY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE TO TURN WINDS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WIND DIRECTION MAY BEGIN TO VARY BETWEEN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK IN WITH THE DAY SHIFT TODAY AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE BURN SITE.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH...VARYING BETWEEN NORTH AND
                    NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....35.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............79  82  82  83  84  84  84  84  83  82  80  79
RH..............94  82  74  77  77  72  70  65  67  72  72  68
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NNE NNE NNE NNE N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..7   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.    10  10  10  10  10  12  12  12  12 10   9

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.
LVORI...............6.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-4900 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....20.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090930.JDSPE.01/MLB