FNUS75 KBOU 012341 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GRANITE RIDGE FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 541 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MODERATE AND WESTERLY ON FRIDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1800...THEN CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-34. MAX HUMIDITY........52-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 14-24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 36-52 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9400-9600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 800-1800 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........18-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-36. MAX HUMIDITY........48-56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-11 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-66. MIN HUMIDITY........18-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 10200-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GRANITE RIDGE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/01-17 1 10 54 21 NW 17 1 9506 NW 47 386082 E 10/01-18 11 0 52 26 NW 22 29 2 1 NW52 9335 NW 48 387959 E 10/01-19 11 0 48 30 NW 22 1 7823 NW 46 319696 E 10/01-20 11 0 44 33 W 20 1 6311 NW 45 251433 E 10/01-21 6 0 42 35 W 18 24 2 1 NW58 4799 NW 44 183170 E 10/01-22 6 0 40 37 W 18 1 3604 NW 40 133899 V 10/01-23 6 0 39 39 W 20 1 2408 NW 37 84629 G 10/02-00 5 0 37 42 NW 20 25 2 1 NW52 1213 NW 33 35359 P 10/02-01 5 0 36 44 NW 18 1 1048 NW 30 28645 P 10/02-02 5 0 34 46 NW 16 1 883 W 28 21932 P 10/02-03 15 0 33 49 NW 15 15 2 1 NW47 718 W 24 15218 P 10/02-04 15 0 33 51 NW 15 1 651 W 24 13641 P 10/02-05 15 0 32 55 W 16 1 583 W 24 12063 P 10/02-06 15 0 32 53 W 17 23 3 1 NW44 515 W 23 10485 P 10/02-07 15 0 33 53 W 16 1 1728 W 28 50649 F 10/02-08 15 0 38 46 W 15 1 2941 W 32 90813 G 10/02-09 15 0 45 37 W 15 15 3 1 NW43 4154 W 37 130976 V 10/02-10 15 0 51 30 W 16 1 5411 W 35 157855 E 10/02-11 15 0 53 26 W 17 1 6667 NW 32 184734 E 10/02-12 15 0 56 24 W 18 24 2 1 NW40 7924 NW 31 211613 E 10/02-13 15 0 57 22 W 18 1 8285 NW 29 209457 E 10/02-14 15 0 58 22 W 16 1 8645 NW 28 207301 E 10/02-15 15 0 59 21 W 15 15 2 1 NW38 9005 NW 26 205144 E 10/02-16 15 0 58 21 W 14 1 8328 NW 24 177276 E 10/02-17 15 0 57 21 W 13 1 7651 NW 22 149408 V 10/02-18 27 0 55 22 W 10 10 2 1 NW32 6974 W 20 121541 V 10/02-19 27 0 51 27 W 8 1 4874 NW 17 83170 G 10/02-20 27 0 47 32 W 7 1 2775 NW 14 44799 F 10/02-21 27 0 45 37 W 6 6 2 1 W23 675 NW 12 6428 P 10/02-22 27 0 43 41 W 6 1 569 W 8 4694 P 10/02-23 27 0 42 44 W 6 1 462 W 6 2961 P 10/03-00 27 0 40 47 W 6 6 2 1 W28 355 SW 3 1227 P 10/03-01 27 0 38 49 W 6 1 332 SW 3 1103 P 10/03-02 27 0 37 49 W 5 1 310 SW 3 979 P 10/03-03 27 0 36 49 W 5 5 2 1 W35 287 SW 3 855 P 10/03-04 27 0 35 48 W 5 1 272 SW 3 838 P 10/03-05 27 0 35 47 W 6 1 256 W 3 821 P 10/03-06 39 0 34 48 W 6 6 3 1 W37 241 W 3 804 P 10/03-07 39 0 36 47 N 5 1 957 W 6 6299 P 10/03-08 39 0 41 41 NE 3 1 1673 W 7 11794 P 10/03-09 39 0 48 33 E 3 3 3 1 W45 2389 W 8 17289 P 10/03-10 39 0 54 27 E 5 1 4848 W 12 64220 G 10/03-11 39 0 57 24 E 7 1 7307 W 15 111151 V 10/03-12 52 0 60 22 SE 8 8 3 1 W45 9767 W 18 158082 E 10/03-13 52 0 61 21 SE 9 1 10419 W 18 163551 E 10/03-14 52 0 62 21 SE 9 1 11070 W 17 169020 E 10/03-15 52 0 63 20 SE 9 9 3 1 W31 11722 W 17 174489 E 10/03-16 52 0 62 20 SE 10 1 10861 W 16 153267 E 10/03-17 52 0 61 21 SE 12 1 10000 W 15 132045 V 10/03-18 52 0 59 22 SE 12 12 3 1 W30 9139 SW 14 110823 V 10/03-19 52 0 55 27 SE 12 1 6219 SW 13 74853 G 10/03-20 52 0 51 32 SE 10 1 3298 S 10 38883 P 10/03-21 52 0 50 37 S 10 10 3 1 SW31 378 S 9 2912 P 10/03-22 52 0 48 41 S 9 1 327 S 8 2445 P 10/03-23 52 0 46 45 S 8 1 275 S 8 1978 P 10/04-00 36 0 45 49 S 7 7 3 1 W39 224 S 8 1511 P 10/04-01 36 0 43 51 S 7 1 222 S 8 1474 P 10/04-02 36 0 42 52 S 7 1 220 S 8 1438 P 10/04-03 36 0 41 53 S 7 7 3 1 W36 219 S 7 1401 P 10/04-04 36 0 41 54 S 7 1 213 S 7 1346 P 10/04-05 36 0 40 55 S 7 1 207 S 7 1291 P 10/04-06 63 0 40 57 SW 7 7 2 1 SW16 200 S 7 1236 P 10/04-07 63 0 41 55 NE 8 1 1309 S 9 14010 P 10/04-08 63 0 46 48 NE 8 1 2417 S 12 26783 P 10/04-09 63 0 52 40 NE 8 8 2 1 SW28 3526 SE 13 39557 P 10/04-10 63 0 57 34 E 8 1 4832 S 15 67020 G 10/04-11 63 0 60 33 E 8 1 6139 S 17 94484 G 10/04-12 73 25 62 33 E 8 8 2 1 SW39 7446 S 18 121947 V 10/04-13 73 25 63 30 SE 9 1 7775 S 16 108811 V 10/04-14 73 25 64 29 SE 9 1 8104 S 14 95674 G 10/04-15 73 25 65 29 SE 9 9 2 1 SW37 8432 S 12 82537 G 10/04-16 73 25 64 31 SE 9 1 7862 S 12 75769 G 10/04-17 73 25 63 32 SE 9 1 7291 S 10 69001 G 10/04-18 73 25 61 35 SE 9 9 2 1 SW41 6721 S 10 62234 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20091001.GRANI.01/BOU